The notice that Xanga may be in its last days comes as no big surprise.

With ever shrinking network traffic and ramp downs in both user participation and management involvement , I figured Xanga had the following inevitable outcomes:

1) Company gets bought by a competitor who injects new life in the aging site.

2) Xanga eventually goes out of business nicely with a orderly countdown.

3) One day without warning the site gives a “404 Not Found” internet error, never to be seen again. Gone without a trace.

 

At least we didn’t suffer the worst fate (#3) and they are FINALLY allowing everyone to archive their blogs without needing to upgrade to premium.

Given the fact they went with the orderly countdown path, I am surprised at the time frame since they gave no prior warning that they were in such big trouble financially. You’d think they’d give some earlier warning signs.

 

Based on the facts they’ve presented, their situation is pretty stark.

 

They need $60K in donations prior to July 15th to update to a more modern WordPress format. The new version will be a “for pay” model that charges users to host blogs.

Here are the “unspoken” MAJOR problems/issues:

1) Xanga has pretty much stayed in the 2G world as all the other blogging sites moved to 3G and beyond. Xanga hasn’t seen any significant upgrades in years. They had all that time to contemplate and come up with a plan for renewal/resurgence. Nothing happened. Now how does it happen that after all these years we fall into an immediate crisis with only six weeks to get emergency funds? Where were all the ideas/plans when time/funds were on their side…or at least, not as critical?

2) As stated in #1, Xanga had years to plan on a new course of action to avoid a time crunch, but failed to do it. If they can’t come up with a good plan over several years, how much faith is there that they will be able to solve their problems in 6 weeks plus the time it takes to update the system?

3) Xanga is in a history time warp if they think a “pay for services” blogging model is going to be successful. That business model is long dead. There are far too many competitors that don’t charge and make their money via advertising. Charging everyone will only shrink the user base further and guarantee very limited growth….the life blood of any social network site. They have basically admitted that they don’t even have enough users now to make enough from advertising to pay for the equipment and operation.

4) Since this whole problem could have been dealt with better- whose to say $60K will solve the problems? What’s the guarantee that the site won’t go down anyway? For those pledging money, I recommend you only use credit cards as that will give you more protection if you need to request a refund/chargeback.

 

The odds for Xanga’s continuation don’t look very promising, which is sad since its interface was unique in it being a combo blogging site and social network. Users are connected to one another in a more friendly/personal way than the more traditional sites like Blogger/WordPress. It’s pretty much “facebook” for bloggers where you can be yourself or anonymous and still find wide acceptance and recognition.

The true tragedy is if Xanga had moved the site to open source years ago enabling user id’s to map across blogging sites like the others do, they likely would have given their competitors a true run for the money and pulled in much more traffic. Most folks who leave xanga for other blogs find the other places to be void of interaction despite the greater network traffic. It’s like moving to a big city, but not knowing a soul so you may as well be in the boonies.

So the REAL question is what’s going to be available after July 15th that compares to Xanga, if anything?

In the meantime, we now have a pending HS/college graduation simulation – working on exchanging contact info for all the special people in our circles this site has brought together.

After so much time has passed, you realize that your xanga contacts are not nearly as disposable as the site itself seems to be.

 

 

Interesting update on the potential of a multiverse…..

 

 

 

 

Understanding the market well enough to accurately predict future actions begins with being able to feel comfortable reading/analyzing the behavior of generated market data. The challenges are very similar to learning a new language.

Most people look at a stock chart and see a graph of random price changes that may as well be written in Greek- the same feeling one would get trying to read a foreign language for the first time.

The key to learning is to get past all the initial hurdles of making sense of the “language”, otherwise known as getting past the “learning curve”.

When learning a language, first you start with the basics of learning the simplest of phrases and words and painstakingly work your way up. Success or proficiency won’t come without continued effort over time. Seeing and hearing the new language will only help if you are actively trying to understand it. Otherwise you could spend years in a foreign country surrounded by people who speak that language, but never learn it.

At first the process can be painfully slow going as one tries to build their vocabulary. After enough time and effort however, things begin to stick and it starts getting easier. This is the same as the learning curve in studying market data. What appears to be random noise can over time can be seen to have specific meaning and direction.

Being able to understand the new language and speak sentences is a great achievement, but the true challenge comes when one’s skills are put to the test talking to the general foreign population in general daily activities. The speed of their talking, or their accents and pronunciations may throw you off. You have to also be on the lookout for slang, words that have an alternate meaning. It’s easy to feel like a beginner all over again faced with all the new variables. This is where the real learning curve begins. Patience, time, and effort is the solution to conquering this phase as well. The brain is an amazing thing that keeps adapting (triggered by actively trying to learn) and over time will begin processing the new language as easily as your native tongue.

Understanding market data flows along similar lines. The extra amount of random variables raises the bar on the challenge/difficulty aspect but the learning methodology is pretty much the same.

Which brings us to my current market update. The last several weeks have been very fruitful in my understanding of market flow and direction – giving me a clearer and more fluent and detailed understanding of the market, in the areas that matter most – direct application. My prior understanding alerted me to “impending” market moves, but the timing was hazy which led to either getting in too soon, or not staying in for the full run. Even with that limitation, I was able to achieve very good performance. My new understanding removes those hazy areas, which makes it exciting times.

That’s the good news. Like in the foreign languages learning curve, the main challenge has been translating my new knowledge in a real time environment . This week brought me that much closer to adapting. I was able to apply what I’ve learned and the profits came. Then I got ahead of myself, got over confident and added leverage, and the profits were lost, haha. It was frustrating to give back those profits, but the mistakes were easy to figure out and going through another round of back testing made my understanding even clearer so the probability of future mistakes goes down considerably.

It’s about picking up the subtle nuances that can be easily missed, but offer great insight for future market direction.

So the game is on – going forward should reveal what I know or don’t know about market behavior.  I’ve removed most of the mystery with my analysis- now the focus goes to just applying my methods properly without jumping the gun and adding risk (leverage).

 

Even the best well behaved men can’t possibly be blamed for suffering from “eye gravity” when encountering such an outfit….

We men,….we have our “limitations”……

 

 

 I mean, really, how can anyone wear such an outfit, then get annoyed when eyes drift…… ?

 

 

I was literally up all night last night back-testing my methods as I made some more refinements after looking at the weeks results. Didn’t turn in until after 5am,…now that’s the way to party on a Friday night! Haha.

The time spent went quickly, which is a key difference between working on something you’re interested in versus doing something you’re not.

Back testing is time consuming since once I test my new methods on current data and charts, I have to try it on older data/charts to see if there is consistency. If they fail on the past, then current success is suspect.

Since my trading isn’t automated, that means I have to “simulate” real time trading by covering up the chart data on the right, and slowly stepping through it, making decisions with the smaller data set, then seeing if my decisions are correct or not.

To be successful in any field, if not blessed with “connections” or wealth, you have to be willing to put in the massive amount of time to iron out the rough spots. It is the trademark of most entrepreneurs.

The thing is, time spent doesn’t feel like work. You know how you feel playing a video game where you spend hours trying to solve a certain puzzle or level? That’s what it feels like.

Of course my ultimate goal is to master the markets so that I can spend my evenings in a more, um, conventional fashion.

 

 

 

 

Another mixed week as I try to implement my new methods. I realize that it’s important to have the right time frame in view at all times to get a better picture of market overall activity. Otherwise, you can get caught up in the heat of the short term battle and wind up making mistakes.

Good week for learning risk management. As I do battle with real time charts, it becomes clearer how to manage positions and control risk by adding, subtracting,entering, or exiting a position.

What I’ve found is there are pockets of uncertainty in the market but there are also areas of high probability. The key is exploiting the high probability areas while avoiding the more uncertain zones. That may sound confusing to the average market watcher, but for a person who actively studies market data daily, it makes more sense.

Looking closely at market activity, it’s uncanny the way the market moves – as if to entice both Bears and Bulls at the same time even though only one side is right. The key is time frames. The market can be bearish and falling in the short term, but still heading higher longer term, only to be heading lower on a still longer term. This is how the market can trick you into seeing what you believe, and why it’s very important to know what time frame you’re trading in.

 

Great week on paper as I recorded big gains. I say “on paper” since in the nature of hedging, you have both positive and negative positions, so paper gains or losses may not directly reflect the true gains or losses made to the account. It’s a relative value between the two positions. So while I did make gains this week, my paper gains  show a higher value. I’ll have to properly trade the opposite position to lock all the paper trade gains in.

That’s the interesting thing about hedging. A couple of days my trades had net negative adjustments on paper, but were positive in increasing my account value as I adjusted my long/short positions. Even so, it’s strange seeing negative trades as a good thing. Trading both long/short shifts my focus to being net long or short instead of the individual trade.

The focus this week has been on implementing the new strategies and insights I’ve acquired the past month. The biggest challenge is trading real-time on the right end on the chart. The complete chart you see at the end of the day may look easy enough to figure out the market directions, but it’s another thing when you are doing it real time price bar by price bar. It’s the equivalent to driving on a road where the road is being formed right in front of you as you go, and you try to anticipate were the road is heading so you stay on it.

It’s a lot like the old school video game, Night Driver:

 

 

 

Now imagine trying to play that game with only 2 or 3 light posts mapping the way instead of a whole road of them- that’s similar to day trading. That shows why many find day trading to be quite difficult.

 

There’s a slight learning curve in recognizing new signals in a real-time environment versus end of day charts, but I’m making good progress.

Trading results this week confirm the great potential in my new methods. Two days this week I had generated sizable profits rather quickly, before giving a portion back due to misreading some signals. That’s the exciting part – any mistakes made were not due to my system, but due to missed signals I didn’t pick up in time. Practice makes perfect and I’m getting familiar and refining my techniques each day.

The one drawback is I now have to chart watch, as in pay much more attention to all the markets smaller movements instead of just the bigger ones.  A main positive benefit is I can now successfully trade much smaller moves in the market which provides more trading opportunities.

 

Happy Fibonacci day!

0 – 1 – 1 – 2 – 3 – [ 5 - 8 - 13 ] – 21 – 34 – 55 – 89 – 144

The next Fibonacci day won’t be until Aug 13, 2021. [8-13-21]

 

 

**** This has been a Nerd Alert ****

 

** Update **

@kittyluve reminded me that non science/technical majors may not be familiar with the Fibonacci Sequence and what it means or its significance.

It’s a series of numbers that occurs time and time again in nature – also in trading!

 

Here’s a primer on Fibonacci and his famous sequence:

 

 

 

 Here’s a more artistic/aesthetic description of how the Fibonacci Sequence occurs in nature:

 

 

 

Saw the vid online – looked cool.

 

 

This week was both a negative and positive. The trading/hedge position is really still in play so only adjustments were made. The adjustments from trades opened from prior weeks were negative while the adjustments for this week were positive with a net negative sum for the week.

April is already over – that’s 4 months of the year already – already 1/3 done. It’s amazing how time flies. It’s funny how as a kid time seems to go by so slowly.

With the end of the month comes talk of overall trading progress. The best terms to describe this month are both horrific and terrific. Woeful and wonderful. Tragic and terrific. In other words, it was a month of both very bad but very good events with the good news outweighing the bad by far.

This month had me experience some of the worst trading results since I started posting results. Loyal readers familiar to my volatile trading curves from last year know that I’ve been able to dodge many bullets and still come out on top at the end of the month or at least neutralize the damage. Well, my number finally came up this month and the culprit was in my new trading style of delta trading – keeping two active and opposite positions open.

With my old method of just being in one direction, I can only get burned from one side. However with delta trading, you can get burned from both sides – making it possible to lose twice as much as a one directional trader would, which is what occurred.

What happened was is that I lightened up one side, but was wrong on direction and the market moved strongly against me. That resulted in me adding back my hedge to put the protection back on, then the market roared back the other way. That means my hedge neutralized me getting back most of those gains. I once again adjusted my position by removing the hedge and the market reversed and roared against me again, giving me two big losing trades for the month. I haven’t done the calculations yet, but I’m sure the results won’t be pretty with a big double digit loss.

This is where posting results doesn’t make for a positive experience as losses are hard to take, and harder to make public. But that is the life of keeping a transparent journal – if I’m willing to post my big gains, I have to be willing to post the big losses. As I’ve said in the past, my performance graphs are straight up transparent as it shows my account status as opposed to just closed out trades. Since I’m still carrying a portion of the losing position, if I just reported on closed trades, a good portion of the loss would be hidden until the trades were finally closed out.

I know traders who struggle to make consistent profits and post losing performance month after month. I have to take my hat off to them because I know it would be very difficult for me to keep posting a series of big losses. Most folks have no desire to make their mistakes public. Although uncomfortable, revealing losses helps keep me grounded and better focused on risk management. It’s a good motivator to keep risk level in check.

So I was done in by my hedge trading this time whereas my prior directional trades would not have suffered as much from the wide market swings of the month.

So did I make a big mistake by attempting to incorporate this new trading strategy? To be honest, I was having some thoughts about that but that soon changed as I was doing my post trade analysis.

A big mistake, no, make that HUGE mistake that many traders or people in general do when faced with a mistake is try to forget or bury it and move on as quickly as possible. They gloss over their actions without taking time to figure out the critical details that can lead to improvements in habits or techniques. I built up my current methods by determining what works from what doesn’t and then refining them to make them more effective. Being a creature of detailed observation and analysis helped me immensely in improving my performance.

Analysis this time around resulted in revelations that rival my best “aha!” moments to date. I uncovered a hidden error in my trading analysis and the resulting improvements are at a game changer level. My biggest weakness with directional and hedge trading was that my short term accuracy was poor. My directional trades often reflected this with having to wait days or weeks until my long term targets panned out. This always troubled me since I knew it would only be a matter of time where I got the long term target wrong and then even my directional trade could suffer the same magnitude of loss such as I just experienced.

Well, I believe insights gained this month have solved the short term direction problem. Why so confident? I back tested my findings using data from the past and other markets and it holds up to confirm my findings. Current market behavior continues to validate it as well.

The ironic thing about my discovery is that trying and failing at hedge trading for the month were directly responsible for it. I’m fairly certain that if I maintained just single direction trading I would not have been able to take this next leap forward. One of my greatest achievements has come out of the ruins of one my biggest failures.

It’s a discovery that left me wondering why I didn’t figure it out sooner. It’s all about nuance and level of detailed observation. Working trades from both directions helped me to pick up on those additional details.

The latter part of the month had me figuring out how to best incorporate my improvements into my trading strategy. I’ve already noticed a stark improvement in my trade positioning accuracy.

Another big leap has also been made in risk management and figuring how to effectively manage the hedge part of the trade for maximum returns.

 

Overall, here’s the visual for how I now feel about trading against the three threats of fear, doubt, and uncertainty:

 

 

 

Okay, maybe not THAT confident, but you get the idea! =)