After several weeks of hearing “prophet” @edlives talk to us about the words from the @XangaTeam we finally got an oppotunity to hear the direct “word” from the mountain top!

@roadlesstaken had the radio talk show today with @John, the CEO of Xanga. I’ve listened to a few of the prior shows with other Xangan’s but this one was a must see event since we would finally be hearing from “The Source”.

Based on who was speaking, I’m surprised there were so few people in the chatroom. I thought the turnout would be much bigger.

To be honest, part of me was holding out hope that he’d say he was ending the “pay only” model and keep free blogging alive, while another part of me was expecting nothing to change so I would give the “Final Nail in the Coffin” post about writing off Xanga.

So what was the outcome? Well, it’s a mixed result. There have been no changes to the “pay only” model, but what John said gives me hope that Xanga 2.0 may have a chance at survival as they work through their plans and obstacles.

Some new info was revealed during the show regarding which blogs will transfer- in addition to current premium members and those paying the $48 pledge, all those who have ever signed up for premium in the past will also be on the list. That’s right- if you bought only “one” month of premium in the past, your blog will be transferred over.

And as was stated in prior info posts, everyone’s subscription and friend list will transfer over.

I also brought up my proposed plan to charge blogs an annual fee to remain online – you know I wasn’t going to let that slip by, haha. Surprisingly, @John was unfamiliar with it so the information never made it to him. Upon hearing it, he sounded intrigued and willing to look into it, so that was promising.

My personal overall take from what I heard is this: I’m still not convinced to pay $48/yr for this service, but I now feel better about making a smaller contribution for the cause. I was originally planning to make a small contribution just for old times sake and to help the folks who are going gangbusters trying to save Xanga – it was to be my “parting gift”.

But now I realize that even folks who intend to blog elsewhere have a good reason to make a donation – so we can preserve our contact/sub/friend lists. The private messaging aspect is a nice feature to keep around with our contact lists intact since that’s not available on the more popular blogging sites. In addition, there are many folks who plan on not blogging anymore post Xanga 1.0, which is another reason to want to keep the current lists intact.

After hearing @John speak, I think Xanga 2.0 is still a work in progress that has potential. I don’t believe they’ve fully considered the problems with how they are implementing it, but I get the impression that they’d be open to changes once they see the issues that arise directly with using a “pay only” model. The problem is they are going to have to deal with it head on because their attention now is on funding and getting Xanga 2.0 out the door.

It looks like they are behind the eight ball in funding, but this is usually when funding picks up – since people who have been holding out finally make their move. The key to the health of a pledge drive is it should have 50% of the funds when 50% of the time has past, and that was the case. 

 

So I will still be making plans to blog elsewhere, but now I’m genuinely curious about the potential of Xanga 2.0 being more community controlled and what might come of it.

Radio Show link to hear recorded event: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/roadlesstaken/2013/06/30/on-the-road-less-taken–john-from-the-xanga-team

 

 

 

 

It’s already at the end of the month and Xanga 1.0 has only 2 weeks left of existence.

Reality is setting in that I only have a handful of blogs left to say here…

 

The last few weeks have made it easier to “let go” because so many people have already vacated the premises. If Xanga was a small town, it’s now become a smaller village. Making Xanga 2.0 a “pay only” model did tremendous damage to the brand and managed to do what previously could not be done – empty the place of many of the longtime users.

The one thing I didn’t like about Xanga the last few years has been the shrinking net volume, which is what prompted me to try out other higher traffic sites years ago. I think most folks had a problem with that. And now Xanga 2.0 is being offered as a walled garden that stands to make the small village we have now seem like a metropolis by comparison. What’s surprising is some people are shocked at the resulting mass exodus.

 

To Do List – Blogs to be done in remaining time:

1) Short alternative sites review – what I learned about other blogging sites I checked out

2) My new location decision/announcement

3) Last Wall Street rant (Haha)

4) Last trading update

 

 

 

If someone were to tell me what I’d think about a show that is a combination of a mix of shows with the ingredients of the likes of: Naruto & Bleach (Ninja philosophy), So You Think You Can Dance,mixed music styles, etc.., with a tinge of Clockwork Orange like scenery/outfits, I’d say it’d be a super hot mess and most likely a big flop on arrival.

Well such a show actually exists and surprise of surprises, it’s quite interesting. The film quality, plot line, music tracks, and dance have been put together well to make for a quality series.

The show is called “League of Extraordinary Dancers”, or “The LXD” for short. It centers on individuals who have special dance abilities that also give them additional powers. Combat is done via dance duels and all dance style and music genres are involved.

This is the first episode I saw of it which I discovered while surfing the web a few months ago, and it was enough to make me want to take a further look:

 

 

All the episodes are in a similar time format – ranging from 5 – 15 minutes in length.

 

Here’s where the rest of the episodes are located: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLE66BC0611BAF903A&feature=plpp

 

The series starts off a bit slow, but after the 1st couple of eps start picking up speed and interest rapidly.

 

 

Have you ever wondered why some blogs make it to “Top Blogs” while others don’t?

The “story” is a computer algorithm determines tops blogs by popularity- I’m guessing by number of recommendations, views, and comments.

That may be true in general cases, However, I can now present you with definite proof certain blogs can be targeted to not appear on Top Blogs no matter how highly rated they are.

Case 1: Blog on “Open Letter to Xanga team” : http://soullfire.xanga.com/773925467/open-letter-to-the-xanga-team/

Posted that originally on a Sunday June 17th….made it to Top Blogs and Most Rec’d by Sunday Evening. By Monday morning before 6am PST it had mysteriously vanished. I was told that blogs only stay on Top Blogs for 24 hours max, but that blog disappeared well before the 24 hours were up.

Suspicious, but let’s give the “algorithm” the benefit of the doubt and say it just randomly knocked it off early.

 

Case 2 is a different story.

 

Case 2: Blog on “How to Keep Xanga Free” : http://soullfire.xanga.com/774061732/a-plan-to-keep-xanga-free/

This was posted today at 8:45am PST and started getting recs and comments shortly thereafter. Yet, despite the increasing number of Recs and comments, it never appeared on the Top Blogs List.

 

At the 11 hour mark,

 

 

The post has risen to the top of most Rec’d list, but hasn’t appeared at all on the Top Blogs list. At the time the post had 194 views and 28 comments.

 

The following blogs stayed on Top Blogs for hours, dominating that space over my blog. Pay attention to the number of views, comments and age of the blog:

 

 

Seems “strange” for the “algorithm” to keep those posts in place so long ahead of high rated ones, doesn’t it?

 

After 12 hours, my post count was 219 views, 33 comments, and 37 recs

 

Then I noticed the “Top Blogs” list had some updates! But my post still wasn’t there. These are among the new “Top Blogs” that made the list:

 

 

 

 

Whoa, look at “all” those views and comments. It’s clear the “algorithm” is doing it’s job accurately.

 

It’s been over 13 hours now and my blog is still nowhere to be seen on Top Blogs.

 

It should be quite clear that there is obviously something more going on than just an “algorithm” selecting Top Blogs. It sure seems that if you post a blog that the “Higher Ups” at Xanga may not agree with, you can get censored off the Top Blogs list in favor of those posting half naked “selfies” and other blogs of far less activity.

 

So much for fostering community expression…

 

#WeareXanga??

 

A Plan for Xanga to be Both Free AND Well Funded

*Show your support with a Rec*

This idea should appeal to just about everyone…

 

Anyone familiar with my blogs knows I mostly write about trading and business news. It’s not the most exciting stuff in the world, but it’s an area I’m interested in and focused on.  So when Xanga announced they were having revenue problems and launched a pledge drive for their survival, it got me thinking on what could be done to solve the problem from a business perspective.

Looking at the information provided from @TheXangaTeam and passed on to @edlives, the main problems are as follows:

1) Not enough ad revenue coming in to support operations

2) Ad revenue is now an unstable source of income

 

The proposed solution is to end the free blogging model, and charge all users $48/year to cover expenses and in return @TheXangaTeam will be upgrading to a more modern platform with minimal advertising, if any.

I was thinking if there was any way “free blogging” could be saved while still solving their financial and income stability problem. The solution I came up with does that and also doesn’t interfere with their current operations so they can still proceed with the pledge drive and upgrade plans. The best part is it doesn’t require anything more than their current resources- they already have what they need to implement this.

Here’s what Xanga currently has:

1) A member base of about 30 million – the bulk of them now inactive.

2) Millions of associated abandoned blogs.

3) A much smaller remaining but loyal and active community.

 

The current plan is to erase/remove all those blogs and just keep those of current premium and paying members. I believe there is a MUCH better use for those old blogs….

Why not charge people an annual fee of a buck or two to maintain their blogs online? The majority of people hold great sentimental value to their blogs and most would prefer to keep them available online rather than just download them. People form attachments and blogs are no exception. The longer they’ve blogged here, the greater the developed attachment.

People who balk at paying $48/year to blog would likely be okay with paying a $1 or $2 annual fee to maintain their blog presence. I know I would!

Let’s look at the potential income-

Out of the 30 million blogs currently out there:

As a very conservative estimate, lets say that only 5% want to keep their blogs online

5% = 1.5 million blogs = $1.5 million in stable ad-free income yearly using a $1 fee

Let’s get even more conservative, lets say only 2% of members are interested in maintaining their blogs:

2% = 600,000 blogs = $600,000 in annual income at $1. That’s 10X the current pledge drive amount that would be consistent income year after year!

And these are just ultra conservative estimates, think of how much could be earned if the amount of interested people is higher.

That should be more than enough to at a minimum maintain the current tier based free model with paying members getting a higher level of features. You could even consider just using a free model entirely with this extra income.

The potential return here is reason enough not to proceed with deleting the old blogs – it would be eliminating a golden opportunity to profit from Xanga’s past blogging dominance.

 

One way to easily start implementing this now is to offer the “reward” of blog transfer to the new version for all who contribute at the $1 level and above.
Since only three weeks are left of the pledge drive, that may not be enough time to reach all the members, perhaps an extended time limit could be used before erasing any blogs. At a minimum, a private direct message should be immediately sent out from @TheXangaTeam to all the members with this offer.

Going forward if this is implemented, you could charge $2 for non active bloggers and a discounted rate like $1 for active bloggers. You could also charge a $1 fee to start a new blog membership, which should take care of the bulk of the spammers.

The beauty of this plan is you can implement this now without doing any drastic changes. Free blogging could still be suspended but people would still want to keep whatever they’ve blogged to date online. It would also help retain the community as a whole since users would have a reason to return with their old blogs intact if free blogging was restored.

 

With the extra income, you could also fund volunteer efforts to get more people to join the xanga community via more social events or online activities.

 

I don’t see any drawbacks with this plan and it presents Xanga with an opportunity to capitalize on its huge membership base and all those dormant blogs.

I hope @TheXangaTeam with members @john, @eugenia, @marc, @bob, etc… give this plan some serious consideration, as I believe it presents a fairly simple solution to retaining as well as growing the current community.

 

#WeareXanga

 

When looking at how people meet each other for relationships, the widely accepted methods are:

1) Through mutual friends

2) At the work place

3) At a party

4) At a club or some other social event

5) Chance meeting doing some daily activity

 

Someone might ask a few questions if one uses one of the “Matchmaker” dating services, but this is also widely acceptable.

In general, no one blinks or things twice about anyone meeting via those methods. However, anyone engaging in meetups in other “non direct” ways such as:

1) Printed dating classifieds (old school)

2) Online dating sites (modern)

3) Online social networks

You can get an immediate negative response from folks, as if it’s taboo or weird to meet people without first establishing visual contact. They ascribe weird or dangerous people more likely to be in this dating pool. The stigma can be so influential that many people meeting this way usually change the story to match one of the more traditional ways of meeting if they become a couple.

In reality, indirect meetings via online pose no greater risk than meeting a casual stranger in real life. People can be funny with how they think- what makes the charming stranger you meet at a party any safer than someone you’ve first met online? Answer – nada. It’s just another avenue available for meeting new people.

As time goes on however, online dating is slowly being normalized into an acceptable “socially approved” way to meet people.

So the question comes up – which way is better – “in person” direct meet ups, or first starting online- “non directly” before meeting?

In my opinion – if done right, meeting online can be superior to meeting directly.

What? Meeting someone from the net can be “better” than meeting someone directly? That’s crazy talk!- I’m sure several of you are saying that. However, hear me out, as I attempt to prove this by the points I make…

In Person Direct Dating:

Pro: Get an immediate visual of person to check for physical appeal, compatibility, and “chemistry”.

This is among the biggest assets of direct meeting-you immediately see the person and can tell whether you feel any attraction with the way they look and what they have to say.

Con: Physical attraction/compatibility takes precedence over the more complex emotional/philosophical/intellectual components of a person since they take more time to learn about.

What usually happens is we tend to get into relationships based more on physical attraction first, then proceed to learn more about the other person. In other words, we use the simpler method of lust/attraction and then “hope” that the more complex aspects of compatibility work out. This process is bass ackwards when you really think about it.

Really, think about it – how many dating relationships have you had with very good looking people that didn’t work out? Yet we use the same methods over and over. Direct meeting is great if the intent is just a physical or “fling” type of relationship, but can be problematic if the search is for an LTR.

The visual attraction aspect is also a problem in that it immediately changes the dynamics of the relationship from the first day of meeting. If we see someone we find very attractive, we usually go into “defense” mode rather than”offense”. By that I mean we don’t ask as many “filtering” questions to find true compatibility because we are more concerned with not getting eliminated ourselves. We’re more likely to “over think” before we speak, which doesn’t lend well to honest straightforward communication.

 

Online dating:

Pro: Can learn more about a person’s personality and beliefs. A better early gauge of emotional/philosophical/intellectual chemistry.

You have the ability to learn more about a person’s true qualities and shortcomings. You are also more willing to be direct and honest with each other since it feels semi-anonymous with little awkwardness plus you’re talking from a place you feel comfortable. This leads to much freer conversations covering more topics. This is where you can, if done right, determine a much better measurement of someone’s true compatibility.

Con: No visual/direct connection which can lead to several pitfalls. If done right, many if not all of these problems can be avoided.

Pitfall 1: No instant visual “connection/chemistry” when meeting.

This is what can sink many budding relationships. The visual becomes the focal point again all other connections go to the wayside. The problem stems from the body/mind making an immediate determination based on how we’ve programmed our mind on who we are attracted too. We feel either attracted, neutral, or not attracted  to someone the instant we see them – a biological response.

For the cases where there is not immediate attraction, it’s important to realize that time is needed for the body/mid to adjust to someone outside our initial preprogramming.

This usually happens naturally in other situations. Think about someone you’ve met through work or some other social function that you initially had zero attraction to, or may have even been somewhat repulsed to a certain extent. Then over the course of time through regular interaction you learn more about this person and their personality grows on you. Then something unexpected happens – you find yourself now becoming attracted to this person you previously felt nothings towards. So what happened? As you learned more and started to like who the person was, your mind accepted this person into the “attractive” programming category.

This happens quite often and is funny when you know a person who says they only want to date a person with (long list of qualifying looks), only to wind up with someone completely different from the list. When you ask them about that disparity, all you get is a sheepish grin.

By the way, it’s also clear this secondary programming can go the other way – someone you were initially attracted to can become repulsive as you learn more things about them that you dislike.

So the solution to this pitfall is to give it time – the two folks need to spend time together. You already know you have checkmarks in the complex areas of compatibility, so that should remain the focus through the initial stage.

 

Pitfall 2: Terminal case of the “Awkwards”

There’s going to be a level of unfamiliarity with the initial direct meeting, which can trigger shyness/awkwardness. Both people can react off each others awkward feelings which only adds to having a negative experience.

When meeting, it’s best that at least one person be an “icebreaker” – one that plays the host/lead and isn’t shy- which helps the other person feel more comfortable.

 

Pitfall 3: Getting in too deep before meeting

A classic mistake is a couple getting way too “lovey dovey” or sexually suggestive, only to fall into the trap of the “awkwards” when meeting. It’s better to consider it building on a friendship and not focus on too much more than that until after you’ve met. After all, by the time the meeting takes place there should be enough compatibility for a decent friendship at a minimum, even if a relationship isn’t in the cards.

Pitfall 4: Keeping things too light

This is the opposite of pitfall #3 – keeping the conversation too light/shallow with no deep conversations, and staying at that level. Without meaningful discussion, it will be harder to determine areas of compatibility. Most of us say the same things when asked what type of person we’re looking for, but you really start getting a good idea about someone after they get comfortable in freely speaking their mind across a range of topics.

 

If those pitfalls can be avoided, you likely have a much better chance at winding up with a good match over the the “classic” direct methods.

 

Which also explains a recent article/study noting that people who marry with “online” origins are more likely to have happier marriages and less likely to divorce than those who met in more traditional ways: 

http://healthland.time.com/2013/06/03/more-satisfaction-less-divorce-for-people-who-meet-spouses-online/

 

 

On Wednesday, the market responded to the Fed’s announcement that they will be easing off the “QE” throttle towards the end of the year with about a 28 point dump. On Thursday, I thought there would be a bounce, but the selling continued and picked up steam, dropping another 40+ points, or about 2%.

Ouch. Got burned some in the selling, but at least I was smart enough to pull the plug not too long into the selling on Thursday. Woe to anyone who was long Wednesday, and held their positions through both days – a potential loss of 70 points – that could squish an account.

Even though I hate using stops, these are what they were made for, to prevent extended losses. I have to remember that when I get tempted to not use them, which I have a bad habit of doing.

The sad part is I would  have not had any losses if I followed my rules of my system. The problem is I jumped the gun, thinking I saw a pattern set up, but I made an error since the pattern I thought I saw was a mistake.

Over confidence can kill a trader and lately my trading has been doing well, so I got a little trigger happy. My system is working well- even though I was expecting a big bounce on Thursday, my system prevented me from getting in long, except for one trade, which made a profit. The problem was I should have realized the overall trend was heading lower so I could have capitalized more on the short side.

Today was contract expiration day – the ES June contracts go inactive and the September contracts become prime. Rollover of the two contracts started last week. I spent a solid three months actively hedging both the June and September ES contracts from the long and short side. After all that time in, I have to say, my skill set has evolved past needing to hedge.

Hedging a position is good when there is a decent level of uncertainty about where prices are headed, but I’ve found that as my precision in determining market direction increases, the usefulness of hedging declines.

For example. Lets say I’m long 4 contracts, and short 2 contracts. I would do that if I feel the market is headed higher, but feel the market might fall a bit before then. Now, the more certain I am of the market’s direction, the less use I get from a hedge, which actually reduces your total gain. Being long 4 and short 2 contracts is the same thing as only being long two contracts.

So with today’s expiration, I can say my big active hedging days are done for now- it’s back to my former method of directional trading, only with much needed improvements.

Hedging has been a real eye opener, albeit a costly one. My worst performance beat downs have come from hedging, letting myself get burned from both directions. The blessing of hedging was that it made me keenly aware of potential trades from both the short and long directions at the same time, making me aware of things I never picked up on when solely directional trading. The end result was a faster evolution and improvement of my trading methods and market analysis capability. The net effect is I’m now seeing some of the best performance gains since I started measuring them. It reminds me of the lyrics of a song:

 

“You plunge you hand in…, you draw it back scorched…, but beneath it’s shining like gold, but better.”

 

Which bring me to my 3rd topic- anger management. The market has been getting on my nerves big time. I know this is impossible, but it sure seems that it’s out to see that I lose. The market is moving solidly in one direction, the second I get in, then the market movement fades and it looks like it’s going to reverse. I know this is a natural phenomenon because people think the same way, but I account for that but it still happens.

 

Example 1: I enter long, and soon after that market looks shaky and starts wavering. It’s goes up down, all around, but does basically nothing. I get tired and exit with a smaller profit, and not even TWO FREAKING MINUTES later the market now gets new life and zips and zooms to my intended target. This has happened way too many times!

Example 2: I enter short, and the weak market suddenly gets a new backbone and surges up, up, and away, tick by tick. My analysis says the market is due to fall, but the market is doing the opposite. It’s like it’s trying to break me to close out for a loss.  After way too long, hours, the market eventually drifts back down and I exit earlier than planned for a smaller profit because the market is showing such unanticipated strength. I barely get my order in and the market takes it and zooms up again, but now I’m out with my profit. You know what happens next. The next time the market drops to where I exited, it doesn’t bounce, but instead drops like a huge rock well past my intended target. It felt like some jerk on the other side was just waiting for me to exit my short before letting the market drop.

 

Trading enjoyment can be measured by the following gauge levels:

1) Best: When you exit at the desired target and the market reverses shortly after that – meaning you nailed the perfect exit point.

2) Good I: You exit as desired target but the market keeps moving in that direction. You left profit on the table, but you’re still happy.

3) Good II: You exit the market at a loss, and the market keeps moving in the same direction so you escaped further losses.

4) Fair: You exit early with profit due to market gyrations, but market winds up hitting target. You feel cheated.

5) Poor: You exit the market at a loss, the market then whips around and hits your target price. You feel robbed.

 

Trade type #5 feels so bad, that the temptation to accept and take Trade #4 is powerful. Trade type #1 is great, but too may of them can be dangerous because it usually leads to overconfidence. But they still feel sooo good.

Okay, so the logical side of me realizes with the vast number of people in the market, it’s HIGHLY unlikely that someone is manipulating the market just to screw with me, but the emotional side of me can’t ignore the strange coincidences. Maybe one of my posts angered someone at Goldman Sachs and this is their attempt at revenge.

 

So the good news my analysis is correct, but I could stand to make some more improvements on my entries so I’m not put in a position of being tempted to exit early- and now you know what my weekend homework assignment is.

 

 

 

 

 

A big point of contention with many current Xangan’s is that Xanga 2.0 is slated to be a “pay-only” blogging site, with free (advertiser sponsored) blogging no longer available.

So the new version will include all Xangans as members, but non paying members will only be able to sub and comment to blogs.

The main reason that has been put forth for this change is that the model of ad generated revenue for internet sites is unsustainable- that it will eventually fail in the long run due to increasing costs of the site and decreasing ad revenue.

 

So then is this the case? Is the ad sponsored revenue model destined to fail?

 

Let’s look at the facts:

 

The ad revenue model is employed by all major communication mediums:

1) Radio

2) TV

3) Internet

 

Both radio and TV have been operating for decades profitably using the ad revenue model with no signs of changing that model anytime soon.

Does that mean there’s a problem exclusively with being able to use that model on the internet? Let’s look at the top ad revenue internet companies, Facebook and Google.

Quarter 2013 results:

Google: 1st Quarter:

“Google said Thursday its profit climbed to $3.35 billion in the first three months of the year as revenue thrived despite a trend toward cheaper ads on smartphones and tablets.” (Article link)

 

Facebook: 2nd Quarter:

“Facebook’s revenues soared by 38 per cent over the first quarter, the social network said yesterday, as it earned more from mobile ads and grew its user base to over 1.1 billion active users every month, up 23 per cent in year on year terms.” (Article link)

 

So it’s clear that these companies are doing quite well with the ad revenue model.

 

Let’s looks at individuals using the ad revenue model- YouTube video bloggers.

 

Infographic on YouTube top earners: Link

 

Looking at the linked info, the top YouTubers are making hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars using Googles Adsense shared revenue model.

 

Based on this info, the ad revenue based “free” model seems to work just fine on the internet. So anyone making the case that the model is slated to fail would be in error because the proof says otherwise.

 

So did Xanga run into trouble because the ad revenue model was doomed to fail? I just showed the model works fine, so it can’t be that.

The answer is clearly that Xanga’s decreasing net traffic was the culprit:

 

 

Conclusion: The problem isn’t that the “ad revenue model” is bad, but that Xanga has lost too much net traffic to earn enough to pay for itself.

 

It’s important to realize and understand what the true problem is in order to come up with the “correct” solution.

 

 

*** I’m Calling on the “Xanga Community” to Rec this if you agree ***

 

Dear Xanga Team

 

I want to start by saying I don’t mean to be seen as a Negative Nancy or pessimist, but we are at the two week mark, 1/3 third of the way done towards the deadline and there are some things that must be addressed now while there’s still time if your intent is to really save Xanga.

1) How is that it’s been over two weeks since your initial announcement of Xanga’s need of $60K by July 15 to keep it alive and fund the upgrade to 2.0, and there have been ZERO updates or live Q & A sessions from any member of Xanga Corp? @edlives has done an outstanding job of informing people to the best of his ability and seeking to keep enthusiasm and morale high, but as he has stated on more than one occasion, he is only a volunteer and doesn’t work for Xanga.

Where is the direct voice of Xanga? This is a company in crisis and at least one of you need to be stepping up and updating the community on a regular basis from the time you made the first announcement until the actual deadline of July 15.

If you are working hard behind the scenes, you need to keep us informed directly- otherwise it looks like you just dropped a bomb in the lap of the Xanga community and are expecting them to do all the work with no help from you.

Some immediate questions about the fundraiser come to mind:

A) Are you also actively seeking to get funds to meet the pledge amount, or is this entirely on the backs of the Xanga community?

B) We were told we’d see some beta prototypes of 2.0, what is the status of that?

 

2) There are a lot of angry people right now because they keep seeing the term “Community is important” at Xanga, but your actions to date say otherwise.

If you really respect and appreciate the community, why weren’t we informed of the financial problems you were having before it became such a critical issue? From the response of the community, it’s clear that a lot of folks are ready and willing to help as they are able – you could have taken advantage of that with relaying the problem to us for a brainstorming session.

If you had done that you would see why so many are up in arms against ending the free blog model and doubling the rate for premium. These actions alone have put the continuation plan in serious jeopardy.

Right now the pledge drive has about 260 backers, with several purchasing multiple year memberships. When you compare that against the tens of thousands of Xangan’s currently using your services, that’s just a tiny fraction of the current community. The glaring reality of that number begs the question- is that small fraction of total users the face of the “new” Xanga community?

What’s going to draw people in to a new Xanga with such a small amount of people, and on top of that pay $48/year? Even worse, your decision has already driven away many of your current users who stayed with you through the years. I see blog after of blog of people saying their final goodbyes and giving out their new blogging location. What is your answer to this growing problem that only gets worse by the day? What good is an upgraded site if the majority of folks, the bulk of the community, are gone?

Adding to the problem, you’ll be erasing the blogs of non paying/non premium members, so that those who have left really have no reason to consider returning.

Why not at a minimum transfer over all the users that qualified as “True”. Doesn’t that user loyalty badge count for anything? If it’s a matter of not wanting to transfer over splogging/spamming sites to save space, you can use the “True” gauge to determine actual users from spammers- 60% “True” or more should easily pass the test as an adequate filter.

 

3) Why has there not been a direct email to all Xanga members regarding the current situation? There are still active Xangans who don’t visit the front page who don’t realize the potential last days of operation….not to mention the less active users.  This should have been done one the 1st day of the announcement, or shortly thereafter. That this has not taken place two weeks later and counting makes no sense. It doesn’t seem as if you are serious about getting funds if you aren’t reaching out to all your members.

Anyone who is currently away from Xanga is going to have a rude awakening if they don’t return until after the July 15 deadline.

 

If you truly think the community is important, you need to start showing it by having an actual employee for the company communicate DIRECTLY to us and field questions. @edlives should NOT be the main voice when he is just a volunteer and not part of Xanga management.

How would you feel about a company that said they were on the ropes, requested funds from its members, but kept to themselves and the biggest presence stepping in to try and help was a volunteer not directly employed by the company?

 

 

 

The big market moves of Wednesday and today are a great illustration of how deceptively easy the market appears along with the potential for stellar gains and/or losses.

The chart above is  ES market activity for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of this week. I included Tuesday to show you a typical trading range for the market – about 15 – 17 points in a day. The market moves on Wednesday and Today were more than double that with a 40+ point range – giant moves!!

Viewing the completed chart makes it look fairly orderly and straight forward- market drifts, then dives sharply, then recovers. You might even be tempted to think the movement looks pretty predictable and easy to forecast. Ah, but things aren’t as easy as they appear. Cover up the 3/4 of the right side of the chart, and slowly move the paper to the right, and try to predict where the market is headed. Not as easy or predictable now, is it? =) That’s what traders face trading real-time – trying to gauge where the market is headed with only past data/charts as a reference/guide. They key to being successful is trying to map out in one’s head what the “end of day” chart looks like long before it actually takes shape on the chart.

The majority of traders were fooled by the Wed/Thurs big swings. These are people who are seasoned traders, not beginners.

Before I describe the events on the chart, I need to define two terms. The ES futures market runs nearly 24 hours/day and is composed of two parts:

1) Cash (“Live”) Market – This is the time floor traders at the exchange actively trade the market, 9:30am – 4:15pm EST.

2) Globex Market – The time outside of Cash Market hours – from the afternoon through the next morning until the Cash Market reopens.

 

Okay, so looking at the chart, Tuesday was a normal day and ended down. During the Globex session, the market rose slowly but steadily. Then we get to the Cash Open on Wednesday, and the market starts moving down. During this time all the Twitter message traffic shows traders are going long, buying as the market is dropping, thinking that the market is going to resume moving up. The market keeps drifting lower, but people still keep buying. At this time there is hardly anyone mentioning going short (selling).

As the chart shows, the market was basically a one way trip down and those who bought now had to get rid of their positions with losses, then they would buy in again at a lower level, only to exit that position with losses as well. They never considered reversing and going short instead.

Some who bought at the start of the day and held their position, starting feeling lots of pain later in the day with mounting losses until finally, they close their position with a big loss. This is why you should use stop loss orders to keep small losses from becoming big losses. Unfortunately traders including me don’t like using stops because the market tends to seek them out before continuing in the planned direction. But big market moves like on Wednesday/Thursday show why not using stops poses such a big risk.

So the cash market closes and continues to drop during Globex before slowly starting to rise before Thursday’s cash open. At this point Bulls are very jittery and Bears are licking their chops to short more when the market moves up. A lot of the same people who were trying to “buy the dip” on Wednesday are now shorting the market rally, expecting it to fall back down. As the really continues, they exit with losses, and short again higher, only to close with losses as the market moves higher.  The Twitter traffic is the reverse from the day before – lots of people selling, very few buyers. Instead of reversing their mindset to buy, they keep selling. Towards the end of the day the market climbs at a faster pace, giving enough pain to sellers to force them to close, which adds pressure for other sellers to close, otherwise known as a “short squeeze”. The market zooms up and makes up all the ground it lost the day before, as if Wednesday never happened.

Summary:

Wednesday: Market falls but majority is tricked to thinking it will go up and wind up losing. Bears are giddy with delight, and think market will be falling further the next day.

Thursday: Market roars back, but the folks who lost money on Wednesday are not likely participating because they are too nervous and wounded. The Bears who stayed in thinking the market would keep falling lost all their profit. New Bears who shorted today and stayed in lost their shirts with big losses.

 

You should find it fascinating that so many seasoned traders were tricked into doing the opposite of what they should be doing. This is what makes trading difficult – the market send out signals that are meant to confuse the majority of traders, despite their preparation.

 

How did I do? Well, I successfully got the bulk of Wednesday’s down move, but even though I expected Thursday to be an up day, I got left watching since it never pulled back to what I was expecting as a low risk entry point. I can live with that, and I’m all kinds of glad I wasn’t lured into trying to short this market today…it was a beast in the up direction!

 

In terms of the potential gains or losses made by traders – they were amplified by the big size of the swings: a 40+ point range! So for example, 1 ES contract gives you a $50 gain/loss with every point move up or down respectively. So a 40 point swing represents a $2000 gain/loss depending if the trader had a winning or losing trade- and that’s just 1 contract. So you can see if a trader had many contracts and was wrong, things could get ugly fast.

In a worst case scenario a trader would be long on Wednesday and stay long, getting big losses. Then they would try shorting the market Thursday and wind up with huge losses again. The size of these swings could easily break an account – which is the risk all traders face. On the other hand, the trader who is on the right side can get tremendous gains. Therein lies the risk and reward of trading. It’s not easy, you can lose big if not careful, but the potential is also there to make life changing wealth.