Observant readers will note that I spell my username “Soullfire”, with two L’s instead of one. There’s a simple reason for that- when I was setting up my username I tried the spelling with one “L” and was notified that it wasn’t available, so I had to be a little creative.

I eventually found the other “Soulfire’s” site, but it was abandoned over three years before I came on the scene and signed up.

The “1 L” @Soulfire is a “she” and curiously enough, posted political, government, business, and office rants that were somewhat similar to my own regarding some of those topics. Her language was a bit more, um, raw than mine at times, haha. Still, a casual reader could easily confuse us were it not for the lack of updates of that site.

There have been a few occasions where someone looking for my site landed on her site instead, then told me about it later. I’m pretty sure early member Xangan’s looking for her landed on my site instead.

She had some interesting things to say – it’s a shame her blog, like so many others, went inactive.

 

This is why Xanga’s current plan of eliminating all non premium blogs and leaving folks with just an empty site is a TERRIBLE idea in my opinion. It’s fun browsing older non active sites to see what others were thinking during the time. Why eliminate all those quality blogs and memories of past users when they serve to attract new readers?

Oh, there was also yet another Soulfire, “XxSoulFirexX”, but that one is on friends-lock. Since “Friends Lock” didn’t exist back in “Soulfire’s” time, this xXSoulFireXx must be a newer incarnation.

 

 

Domino’s in the UK is experimenting with pizza delivery by drone!

 

 

 

Ever since Xanga announced that they may be shutting down July 15th, that has taken center stage in my blogging focus and attention. They so “kindly” let everyone know that if they don’t make their pledge drive goals in six weeks, the site will be closing. Furthermore, if they manage to make the pledge amount, they will relaunch with a new “pay only” business model.

Current information states that anyone not buying a “new version membership” in the form of a minimum $48 pledge and/or not currently having premium level status will lose all their past blogs and will have to manually re-upload them if they wish to continue (once they’ve paid the $48/yr new dues of course).

In any case, since I don’t feel compelled to pay to blog when there are so many free options, especially when the request comes in the form of a “threat” (pay us or else we will close and take your blogs with us!!), I don’t see myself continuing on this site.

Frankly, I don’t see how they would expect a “pay us now for a new version you haven’t seen or tried yet” plan to go over well, but enough of that here, that will be the topic of another blog.

Current tasks now include looking for a new blogging site. I haven’t made up my mind yet, but WordPress is one of the front runners- will update once I decide.

 

In the remaining time before the “do or die” date of July 15, I’ve decided to make some big changes of my own. The most prevalent questions I’ve gotten since starting this blog was:

 

1) “Why don’t you blog about other things besides business/trading??”

2) “How come your blogs are not more personal?”

 

I’ve blogged about other more personal topics occasionally, but the focus has always been on trying to master trading/investing. It was my primary reason to start a blog. The last couple of years has seen my focus ramped up even more so even a greater percentage of my blogs have been on trading.

The reason for the focus was/is I desire to be able to trade for a living because like most of us, corporate office life doesn’t thrill me. I thought having a blog to write about my success/failures would help with my progress.

Going forward, with the Xanga clock ticking down, I’ve decided to change things up and open my blogging to PRIMARILY OTHER SUBJECTS. That’s right, my blogs may not be as dry/boring as usual, haha.

There have been blogs I’ve always been meaning to write if I had the time, and with time running short, this is the perfect opportunity to do it.

There are still one or two trading tropics I want to address, plus a few rage/rants against Wall Street arrogance/corruption - but expect to see less of that and more of other things you wouldn’t expect from “Mr. Business”.

 

 

Xanga has provided info for a Q & A session provided here: Link

 

In particular, I noticed this response to a question:

 

 

In other words, all non paying and non premium members will see all their blog posts go “bye bye” in Xanga 2.0. All that will remain will be the much smaller subset of blogs from paid/premium users.

My questions to that are:

1) Has the Xanga team considered that by erasing (not transferring over) all non paying /non premium blogs leaving the only option of the hassle of manually reimporting, they are making it VERY easy for these folks to just walk away and start fresh somewhere else?

Why would anyone be so motivated to now have the hassle of trying to manually reimport their blogs, and have to “pay” for this privilege? They are probably thinking this will be an incentive for people to start paying before the deadline, and it may work for some, but they stand to lose a ton of folks in the process. How is this building a community? How are people going to be persuaded to return to a place where the landscape has been wiped clean of the blogs of so many of their friends?

2) Have they considered the consequences of destroying so much of Xanga’s history as well as how it will affect the morale of current users?

 

This is my thought process – if I don’t pay, Xanga will be erasing all my blogs and I will have to manually reimport or just start over again. Furthermore, there is NO guarantee that the new version of Xanga will survive so I could wind up losing my posted blogs all over again. Let’s see – what’s my motivation to remain also knowing that many of the folks I subscribed to are no longer there?

 

I’m not sure what Xanga is thinking. Blogs = content, which is a draw for other users. How is eliminating the bulk of their user content a good business move?  How is the sense of “community” going to be fostered and grown when they are basically removing the homes and paving over so much of the old neighborhood?

Too bad all of the “non paying” folks who could have helped quite a bit in “evangelizing” – spreading the word and attracting users…you know “grass roots style”, will no longer be around.

 

I really hope they rethink their strategy before following through with this plan. The message sent whether intended or not is being a loyal user after all these years counts for nothing, but they somehow expect “new” users to suddenly be interested and pay to join despite all the free options available.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Okay, so anyone who is familiar with measuring site traffic and popularity knows that Xanga has been in decline for some time. Even if you didn’t measure site traffic, it would be apparent looking at your subscription and friend lists to see how many people stopped blogging or moved on to other sites.

There have been many new blogging and social network sites introduced since Xanga first appeared with the top contenders today being Blogger, WordPress, Facebook, Tumblr, etc. Many folks just moved on to the next new and popular thing.

Now here comes the paradox set up:

Xanga has been losing market share for years due to its aging interface and features compared to the new sites. But just as sure as Xanga is aging, it also provides a blogging sense of community better than any other site out there, from the oldest to the newest. That’s the 1st paradox and is the primary reason why so many people return to Xanga or continue to use their services.

The 2nd paradox is the bigger one – even though most would agree the “Xanga blogging community experience” is better than anything else on the market today, the company has been unable to successfully market its best feature to their advantage….leading to the current financial crisis.

I’m sure a big reason for this was the aging design and interface compared to its blog competitors. The “community feel” isn’t something that can be easily demonstrated to prospective new users compared to all the latest bells and whistles.

I think Xanga’s biggest “sin” was not converting years ago to a more updated format or at the very least, updating the user log in software to enable it to connect across multiple platforms like the other blogging sites, so a Blogger/Wordpress user could leave comments on Xanga without needing to create a new Xanga account. Without this upgrade, Xanga became an enclave, where only Xanga users could easily comment on Xanga, blowing the opportunity to easily introduce new people to the site as well as encouraging users to stay. As a result most folks went to the newer sites without ever needing to visit an aging site like Xanga.

So the question is what can Xanga do now to save itself? Xanga’s current plan is to convert to a more modern format- that’s good. They also intend to eliminate “free” blogging – that’s not so good.

In a world where other blogging sites offer free blogging, charging people for similar services seems like a suicidal move. Yes, you will get some current users that are devoted enough to pay, but it will be a hard sell for newcomers given that they have free alternatives.  Blogging sites become popular by the quality of their content. Without an influx of new blogs, there will be less to attract newcomers, and how long can a blogging site survive on a shrinking list of users?

I would think Xanga could offer a basic free blog like everyone else and then start charging for the special features it has-

1) Want friends lock? That’s extra.

2) Want private messaging? Extra.

3) Chat feature? Ditto.

That would let people blog and those who wish to make their content private would have to pay a small fee, which could add up when multiplied by all the users requesting it. The other users posting blogs for all to see are providing marketable content for the site- making it a win-win for both Xanga and bloggers alike.

 

An even bigger approach would be to make Xanga a “blogger hosting center”, where bloggers log in to Xanga as their homebase to post to the blogging site of their choice. All the blogs from all the sites would get ranked to have a true top blogs list (I’m sure this would be a huge software project so that puts it at a long range goal).

 

 

 

 

 

 The notice that Xanga may be in its last days comes as no big surprise.

With ever shrinking network traffic and ramp downs in both user participation and management involvement , I figured Xanga had the following inevitable outcomes:

1) Company gets bought by a competitor who injects new life in the aging site.

2) Xanga eventually goes out of business nicely with a orderly countdown.

3) One day without warning the site gives a “404 Not Found” internet error, never to be seen again. Gone without a trace.

 

At least we didn’t suffer the worst fate (#3) and they are FINALLY allowing everyone to archive their blogs without needing to upgrade to premium.

Given the fact they went with the orderly countdown path, I am surprised at the time frame since they gave no prior warning that they were in such big trouble financially. You’d think they’d give some earlier warning signs.

 

Based on the facts they’ve presented, their situation is pretty stark.

 

They need $60K in donations prior to July 15th to update to a more modern WordPress format. The new version will be a “for pay” model that charges users to host blogs.

Here are the “unspoken” MAJOR problems/issues:

1) Xanga has pretty much stayed in the 2G world as all the other blogging sites moved to 3G and beyond. Xanga hasn’t seen any significant upgrades in years. They had all that time to contemplate and come up with a plan for renewal/resurgence. Nothing happened. Now how does it happen that after all these years we fall into an immediate crisis with only six weeks to get emergency funds? Where were all the ideas/plans when time/funds were on their side…or at least, not as critical?

2) As stated in #1, Xanga had years to plan on a new course of action to avoid a time crunch, but failed to do it. If they can’t come up with a good plan over several years, how much faith is there that they will be able to solve their problems in 6 weeks plus the time it takes to update the system?

3) Xanga is in a history time warp if they think a “pay for services” blogging model is going to be successful. That business model is long dead. There are far too many competitors that don’t charge and make their money via advertising. Charging everyone will only shrink the user base further and guarantee very limited growth….the life blood of any social network site. They have basically admitted that they don’t even have enough users now to make enough from advertising to pay for the equipment and operation.

4) Since this whole problem could have been dealt with better- whose to say $60K will solve the problems? What’s the guarantee that the site won’t go down anyway? For those pledging money, I recommend you only use credit cards as that will give you more protection if you need to request a refund/chargeback.

 

The odds for Xanga’s continuation don’t look very promising, which is sad since its interface was unique in it being a combo blogging site and social network. Users are connected to one another in a more friendly/personal way than the more traditional sites like Blogger/WordPress. It’s pretty much “facebook” for bloggers where you can be yourself or anonymous and still find wide acceptance and recognition.

The true tragedy is if Xanga had moved the site to open source years ago enabling user id’s to map across blogging sites like the others do, they likely would have given their competitors a true run for the money and pulled in much more traffic. Most folks who leave xanga for other blogs find the other places to be void of interaction despite the greater network traffic. It’s like moving to a big city, but not knowing a soul so you may as well be in the boonies.

So the REAL question is what’s going to be available after July 15th that compares to Xanga, if anything?

In the meantime, we now have a pending HS/college graduation simulation – working on exchanging contact info for all the special people in our circles this site has brought together.

After so much time has passed, you realize that your xanga contacts are not nearly as disposable as the site itself seems to be.

 

 

Interesting update on the potential of a multiverse…..

 

 

 

 

Understanding the market well enough to accurately predict future actions begins with being able to feel comfortable reading/analyzing the behavior of generated market data. The challenges are very similar to learning a new language.

Most people look at a stock chart and see a graph of random price changes that may as well be written in Greek- the same feeling one would get trying to read a foreign language for the first time.

The key to learning is to get past all the initial hurdles of making sense of the “language”, otherwise known as getting past the “learning curve”.

When learning a language, first you start with the basics of learning the simplest of phrases and words and painstakingly work your way up. Success or proficiency won’t come without continued effort over time. Seeing and hearing the new language will only help if you are actively trying to understand it. Otherwise you could spend years in a foreign country surrounded by people who speak that language, but never learn it.

At first the process can be painfully slow going as one tries to build their vocabulary. After enough time and effort however, things begin to stick and it starts getting easier. This is the same as the learning curve in studying market data. What appears to be random noise can over time can be seen to have specific meaning and direction.

Being able to understand the new language and speak sentences is a great achievement, but the true challenge comes when one’s skills are put to the test talking to the general foreign population in general daily activities. The speed of their talking, or their accents and pronunciations may throw you off. You have to also be on the lookout for slang, words that have an alternate meaning. It’s easy to feel like a beginner all over again faced with all the new variables. This is where the real learning curve begins. Patience, time, and effort is the solution to conquering this phase as well. The brain is an amazing thing that keeps adapting (triggered by actively trying to learn) and over time will begin processing the new language as easily as your native tongue.

Understanding market data flows along similar lines. The extra amount of random variables raises the bar on the challenge/difficulty aspect but the learning methodology is pretty much the same.

Which brings us to my current market update. The last several weeks have been very fruitful in my understanding of market flow and direction – giving me a clearer and more fluent and detailed understanding of the market, in the areas that matter most – direct application. My prior understanding alerted me to “impending” market moves, but the timing was hazy which led to either getting in too soon, or not staying in for the full run. Even with that limitation, I was able to achieve very good performance. My new understanding removes those hazy areas, which makes it exciting times.

That’s the good news. Like in the foreign languages learning curve, the main challenge has been translating my new knowledge in a real time environment . This week brought me that much closer to adapting. I was able to apply what I’ve learned and the profits came. Then I got ahead of myself, got over confident and added leverage, and the profits were lost, haha. It was frustrating to give back those profits, but the mistakes were easy to figure out and going through another round of back testing made my understanding even clearer so the probability of future mistakes goes down considerably.

It’s about picking up the subtle nuances that can be easily missed, but offer great insight for future market direction.

So the game is on – going forward should reveal what I know or don’t know about market behavior.  I’ve removed most of the mystery with my analysis- now the focus goes to just applying my methods properly without jumping the gun and adding risk (leverage).

 

Even the best well behaved men can’t possibly be blamed for suffering from “eye gravity” when encountering such an outfit….

We men,….we have our “limitations”……

 

 

 I mean, really, how can anyone wear such an outfit, then get annoyed when eyes drift…… ?

 

 

I was literally up all night last night back-testing my methods as I made some more refinements after looking at the weeks results. Didn’t turn in until after 5am,…now that’s the way to party on a Friday night! Haha.

The time spent went quickly, which is a key difference between working on something you’re interested in versus doing something you’re not.

Back testing is time consuming since once I test my new methods on current data and charts, I have to try it on older data/charts to see if there is consistency. If they fail on the past, then current success is suspect.

Since my trading isn’t automated, that means I have to “simulate” real time trading by covering up the chart data on the right, and slowly stepping through it, making decisions with the smaller data set, then seeing if my decisions are correct or not.

To be successful in any field, if not blessed with “connections” or wealth, you have to be willing to put in the massive amount of time to iron out the rough spots. It is the trademark of most entrepreneurs.

The thing is, time spent doesn’t feel like work. You know how you feel playing a video game where you spend hours trying to solve a certain puzzle or level? That’s what it feels like.

Of course my ultimate goal is to master the markets so that I can spend my evenings in a more, um, conventional fashion.