July 7, 2013
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Xanga Survival Speculation Time
Since another week has passed by with no further updates, which is VERY surprising considering we are going into the final week of the pledge drive. I think I’ll do what business and news media LOVE to do when in situations like this: speculate on possible outcomes based on available info, haha.
Okay, here’s the latest info:
1) Pledge drive at ~ $37,400 with 478 backers
That amount may appear to be “anemic” but it’s really not so bad going into the final week. The last week is similar to the first in getting a flurry of activity and we are definitely in striking distance with just a few big gun donors if they show up, and this is the most likely time for such a move.
That was the “good” news. Now onto the less promising and cloudy info…..
2) A mass “private messaging” mail has STILL not been sent out.
I find it both funny and sad that almost everyday I see someone on Xanga express either shocked surprise or disbelief that Xanga may be closing down for good, or complete ignorance of the fact.
Just yesterday I asked one of the main moderators/contributors on an ish site what their plans were if Xanga goes down. Their response was basically “I didn’t hear anything about that!”
You look around the site and everything looks like it’s just another day on Xanga- no priority placed warnings or splash pages of the current situation of any kind. So all those who don’t visit the front page or know to look in the bottom corner for news from Xanga, they are completely oblivious to the whole shut down crisis.3) We were told there would be a software app or notification on which blogs would be transferred over and which would not – still waiting…
4) We were told there would be mock ups of Xanga 2.0 to see – - still waiting…
These are things that normally would NOT be held up for the final week of a pledge drive and shutdown deadline. It takes time for people to react to new information and you want to give them that time to soak it in and answer any questions they may have.
With only a week left, there’s not much time for anything – out of all the weeks – the last week should have been the “silent run” week with everything put in place earlier.
All these delayed activities (if they even happen) point to an ongoing problem of time management. Engineers can be notorious for needing more time than estimated, but the business folks know how critical deadline dates are and prod them on. Keeping the customer informed of any delays as early as possible is critical to keep positive momentum going. It’s clear the business minded side of the pledge drive is MIA.
#2, #3, and #4 are NOT small things, and the fact that these are still “TBD” are red flags something isn’t right.
It’s now time to speculate on possible outcomes for July 15th:
1) The pledge drive ends and Xanga renews/extends it if the goal hasn’t been met.
Odds: Not likely. John said on the phone interview that the date is “hard coded”. Plus it weakens the credibility of the company when they set hard dates, then fail to act on them- especially without any advance notice. The lease where their servers are is expiring, which would limit any extension.
2) The pledge drive gets some “Hail Mary” big donations at the end to pull through and make the goal.
Odds: Possible. This would explain the seemingly “lackadaisical” response from Xanga to date if they knew they had some big gun donors that were going to step in during the last week. However, if this is the case, we should start to see some big moves no later than Wednesday- the mid point of the final week. This translates to being at least in the mid to upper $40k’s by that time.
3) The pledge drive fails and Xanga closes down.
Odds: Also possible. This scenario should enrage all the “super supporters” who have been working a storm and spending much of their time trying to raise funds. Few if any would be willing to argue against the fact that Xanga has been pretty quiet this whole time and could have done much more to help their own cause.
This begs the question, did they even intend to have a “Xanga 2.0″, or was this just going through the motions of just wanting to look like they cared as some have speculated earlier? If the latter, that would be even more of a reason for super supporters to be enraged since the cause was lost and their efforts wasted from the very beginning.
4) The pledge drive fails, and Xanga…doesn’t close and continues working on Xanga 2.0.
Odds: Not likely. The pledge drive was to fund the move from where their servers were located and launch Xanga 2.0. If that were possible without the pledge drive, then why would they hold one in the first place?
So it looks like scenario #2 and #3 are the most likely. For the sake of all the super supporters as well as all those who have no idea of what the current situation is, I hope it winds up being scenario #2. A #3 outcome would not only be disastrous for all the uninformed users who stand to lose their entire work, but a sad and dark ending on Xanga and the reputation of those running Xanga. It would be a sad summary of all the problems that have plagued Xanga these last years of its once bright life. Definitely not a good note to end on.
Now some folks may get upset that I’m bringing up all these negative aspects instead of just “thinking positive thoughts”, but those folks likely don’t understand how businesses work. The negative aspects HAVE to be addressed so people can make intelligent decisions on what to do.For EVERY company that has failed, there have been a set of ardent supporters who believed in that company no matter what- then express shock and anger when that “faith” didn’t pan out and the company failed anyway. A Company in trouble will rarely tell you when they are on the way out – just look at all the Wall Street and mortgage Banks during the 2008/2009 melt down. The repeated mantra was “Everything is fine, we have things under control…” right up until the point they declared bankruptcy/insolvency and were liquidated.
I don’t look at things from a “faith” based perspective when it comes to business….and neither should anyone.
Into the final stretch we go…
Comments (25)
I’m in the camp that doesn’t believe the Xanga Team was really ever serious about saving Xanga. Their silence speaks volumes. I get the feeling that they think this site is more of a nuisance to maintain (as they said, they don’t even get money out of it) than it’s worth, and that they just want it to close down. Their whole re-launch plan was poorly designed and executed. The biggest killer is the $48 a year fee, and if they could just get rid of that idea, there’d be a lot more support.
@coolmonkey - If it ends up being true that they were never really interested in continuing on, then they basically “pranked” all their supporters who spent lots of time and effort that went wasted. It would have been better in that case to just give a deadline until closing with a “Thanks for the memories” farewell note.The majority of their moves to date sure points to a lack of commitment or enthusiasm.
I was thinking similarly over the weekend. Maybe they are waiting for Independence Day to be over and drive the last mile this week when everybody is back. From where the pledged amount stands now, I suppose they can make the 60k this week.
I posted this on the facebook group earlierI don’t know if this has been mentioned but has anyone thought about the fact that maybe Xanga doesn’t even really want to be saved. I feel like they aren’t really promoting their fundraiser at all. I mean I was just trying to find it to show someone and you have to know its there to even find it. I love Xanga. I’ve been blogging for 10 years on it. My life is documented on there and i want to save it but I don’t think they even really want to save themselves. Its the last week they should be trying to squeeze every penny out of us. I feel like we’re doing all the work.
I’ve been on vacation all this past week and I am very surprise that we did not get the update that John mentioned would come. One more week…I hope they step it up.
Excellent post!
I would have thought another post would have come by now – something informative with those mock ups. It needs to happen in a day or 2. peace
I agree with you, great analysis.I think it’s over. They really don’t care very much, and even if they did, the user base is so small that Xanga isn’t going to much fun anyway. I’m just about ready to say goodbye
Ever noticed top blogs they’re all occupied by no means now people who aren’t famous or popular what is that tell you? 90% of the community has left there’s only about 200 or 300 users left on this stupid site At this rate with only seven days to go thinking needs to be pulling in $3000 to hit 21,000 not to mention the five grand it short so this place is going under it was fun while it lasts
Look at the top blogs there occupied by no names in nonfamous people that means the famous people are gone this place only holds 200 300 occupants now this place is a graveyard not to mention at this rate Zynga needs to be pulling in three grand day not to mention the five grand short of 7×3 = 21+ a three: grand short of 40 grand +2 green equals five grand there’s no way Zynga’s gonna grab $23,000 in one week this place is going under nice knowing you
@x_tinydreams_x - EXACT:Y xanga is stupid! there making all the stupid users do the dirty work so stupid drones! ive seen ETSY and give away donations like a bribe how dumb are people?!?!?!?
I’m really baffled by their enthusiasm to do… nothing. Even the number count on donators can be skewed, simply by the fact people can donate multiple times, even the execs themselves. So I think the scenario where they fail and shut down or where they use a portion of the users money and come up with the rest themselves to keep things going may be pretty correct. I mean, how much capital could John himself inject?Ideally a ‘fundraising’ drive with proper announcement should have happened a year ago. Giving them ample time to work on the problem and provide information to their customers. At this point… it’s just not being honest with their userbase. Yes the criticism can be harsh, but rightly so. It’s to be expected even. It’s because we all love this site. You can’t walk through life any other way and expect to be successful never understanding your mistakes and learning from them.
I will be prepared to move to WordPress myself with my downloaded files. I see the end of Xanga. I don’t know if there ever was the intent to be serious about Xanga 2.0 and it’s continuation on WordPress from the Xanga Team. The total silence from them during this so-called fundraising effort speaks volumes. Furthermore, all of us who have donated the minimum $48.00 via our cc:’s; have any of us considered that the 15th may come, Xanga dies and they take our funds and skidatel? That would be the ultimate betrayal.
They don’t have a lot of staff. If they believe xanga2.0 is going to make it, I can see it likely they are spending ALL their time setting up the new xanga – and there simply is not enough time to do anything else.One of the concepts inherent in the new model is support from the community. I view the campaign as a test of that support. If there is sufficient community support, then that bolsters the idea that the new model can work by depending on that community support.64K is not a lot of money for supporting hardware, software,developers, employees, etc. But – it can be used as a gauge of community support.So! I don’t really think it is up to just the xanga team anymore. It is also dependent on community support. And if that support is not there – then it is time to shut her down.But I hope xanga survives to meet a new day! Xanga has been wonderful! It can be still! But it depends on the community! Is it there – or has it left already? Let’s find out!
I’m puzzled and disappointed by the lack of visibility of the Xanga team. I know they are heads down working but someone has to communicate with the end users.
I’m disappointed by the lack of notifications as well. An email to the registered email would be at least appropriate or a private message, as you stated. I’ve been using this site to blog since 2002/2003 and have met many of my friends on here, in person. I met someone from Israel who traveled to see me. This site has had such a huge effect on my life, that I’m relatively speechless. Yes, I’ll have my content downloaded on my computer, but it feels empty without the site. I don’t know what to do and if I pledge money, I’m worried about the paid model plan that they have in place being viable. I feel they should’ve thought some of these things through a little more, but I will thank them for the many years of use that I derived benefit from.
…and if you look at their funding page.. it seemingly has been extended to July 31st. Fancy that.
@beowulf222 - Looks like their next move was an impromptu deadline extension…@x_tinydreams_x - It seems to be a big mystery why they seem so “publicly” reserved/unenthusiastic about it. Yet if they don’t want to save Xanga, why go through all the motions and waste of time doing a pledge drive? They are sending very mixed signals…@Roadlesstaken - It’s disappointing when the CEO’s statements about what’s we can expect to see comes to naught when the deadline is right around the corner.@CuddlyKat - Thanks!@peacenow - These extended silent periods in the face of a looming deadline make no business sense and raises doubts.
@ElusiveWords - Their continued silence does more harm than good. They should have appointed an “ambassador” of sorts (besides @edlives, since he is volunteering his help and doesn’t directly work for Xanga) to field questions and make periodic scheduled updates. @DreamsOfReality - Not sending a message to their users or making the pledge drive more prominent sure makes it look like they aren’t trying very hard to spread awareness or raise cash. I think the “pay only” model will self correct quickly if Xanga 2.0 makes it out the door. The dramatic drop in volume/traffic of a pay wall system will force them to make changes.@Cagey - Haha, thanks for the heads up! =) I also find it VERY interesting that despite the out of the blue deadline extension, no one from Xanga has still bothered to make any new updates, leaving it to the “community” to figure out what their move means. Well, at least they’re being consistent.
@XtremePsionic - I wished they’d resolve all these mixed signals they’re sending and either show more public enthusiasm/initiative or come out and say they aren’t really interested in continuing.@Jeremy_Sheer - From a business standpoint, that’s not an insurmountable amount by any means- so I wouldn’t rule them finished just yet. You seem to be personally angry with Xanga which makes no sense since every blogging service has its ups and downs. @Cagey - Yes, this dual mode of silence then statements proposing impending updates/actions followed by…nothing and more silence sends out all kinds of mixed signals – most of them negative. If they don’t follow through on what they said, they should expect negative feedback, especially from a community blogging service. They need to be more public with their fundraising actions and stop falling off the radar.@kwantifiable - Quite a few folks are wondering how committed Xanga really is with all these mixed signals they are sending out. Your CC has protection against mischarging, so at least we don’t have to worry about that.
@Donkey_Guy_10 - I understand your enthusiasm and support of the Xanga Team, but at the end of the day, this is a business, not a church – and they should adhere to being professionals. They should not expect people to have blind faith and accept whatever they do without question, especially if current actions contradict what they previously said. They said they’d keep us informed with timely updates. How long can it take to type out a few sentences to state how things are going- even if it’s just to say “we are really busy right now- but we’re just writing to say we’re still alive”? There’s no good excuse for these extended periods of silence when the deadline is right around the corner.Faith and commitment works two ways- and so does testing. If the test is that the community should just remain silent while the Xanga Team ignores what they said they would do and just hope for the best, then I would expect that test to not be successful. Xanga is also under a test – can they follow through on the things they say and keep us duly informed as promised? They aren’t doing so good with their test either… But I am still hopeful, just very concerned about their seeming failure to “walk their talk”.
@SoullFire - I agree, they really should have a communications strategy and a dedicated person to handle all the questions, update the FAQ etc…
Did you see their new update?
@SoullFire - I recall a statement about the date being “hardcoded”. Apparently not so hard. Not sure if this improves my confidence in them or not.
@musterion99 - Yes – I only wish they would be more timely in getting them out. If there’s a delay in finishing what they intend on saying, then a brief note saying that it’s on the way would work wonders in community spirit versus dead silence.
When I read the first fundraiser announcement, I got the impression that The Xanga Team wasn’t going to take action for Xanga 2.0 until the $60k was raised, or at least looked promising.Of course John would sound optimistic and confident during his interview. If he showed the least bit of insecurity about 2.0 working out, then that would lower morale and nobody would buy into it. The problem is that after not carrying out many of the things he mentioned, and that includes doing it in a timely manner, he’ll lose his credibility.