October 12, 2012

  • Trading Update 10/8 - 10/12

    Week got off to a slow start and wound up misreading some chart activity which cost me some good opportunities and to enter a bit too soon into others. Good news is I'm really starting to get more adept at chart reading so I should be able to capture more future opportunities. Practice makes perfect.

    Had modest gains this week.


    Here's a great shot of a jet going supersonic:

     

     

    Have a great weekend!

     

October 8, 2012

  • The American Dream is Still Going Strong

     

    We are surrounded with opportunities if we are able to free our minds from traditional thinking and the jobs/careers that go with them.

     

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    Surprising Six-Figure Jobs

    CNNMoney.comBy Blake Ellis | CNNMoney.com – Fri, Oct 5, 2012 11:45 AM EDT

     

    Clearing trees. Performing magic tricks. Pet sitting. Repairing other people's credit. These people are earning $100,000 or more.

    Reads minds, does magic tricks

    Courtesy: Wayne HoffmanName: Wayne Hoffman
    Pay: $135,000
    Age: 30

    It all started as a hobby, when I got a magic set for Christmas as a kid. At college, I studied psychology. And that's when I started getting interested in mentalism, which is geared toward mind-reading.

    Times were rough at first and I had to bust my butt to get jobs, but now I have to turn away business, and I can take off time whenever I want.

    Companies hire me to do entertainment for them, I'm also hired to work at trade shows, where companies set up a booth and I incorporate their sales message into my magic. I do college campus tours twice a year. I perform at theaters, and I do cruise ships, where I get flown out to an exotic location and perform magic on the ship -- I've been to Tahiti, Bora Bora, Hawaii, Venice and Japan.

    On the low end, I make $4,000 and it can go anywhere up to $30,000 for one show. I never thought I would be making this kind of money.

    [Hoffman said his annual income ranges anywhere from $100,000 to $325,000 a year depending on the number of jobs he books].

    Sells recycled ink cartridges

    Courtesy: Lauren ElwardName: Lauren Elward
    Pay: $165,500
    Age: 33

    I was an English teacher, and the copy machine at school was always breaking so I would make copies at home.

    I had 125 kids a day. I can't count how many times I was running out to Staples getting more ink cartridges -- and it was all coming out of my pocket.

    I looked online and there are companies out there [that recycle cartridges], but it wasn't a flooded market. So [my husband and I] invested about $1,000 and found some inexpensive guy from Europe to make a website for us.

    We developed a relationship with a company that takes cartridges that have already been used, and recycles them, so they ship them out to our customers.

    Our cartridges range from $10 to $30 -- if you were in the store you'd be paying $25 to $50 -- and toner [from our website, CastleInk.com] for the big copy machines can be hundreds of dollars cheaper.

    I'm making quadruple what I made teaching. At one point, we were getting so many sales a day we couldn't believe how much money we were making.

    People were like, 'where are you getting this money to redo your whole backyard?' It's definitely nice to have, especially for a cushion for the kids. I'm putting a lot into savings for them.

    Voice actor for TV commercials

    Courtesy: Jonathan LockwoodName: Jonathan Lockwood
    Pay: $127,000
    Age: 46

    I got into radio when I was very young, at 17. I was a deejay, and recording commercials [for local businesses] was part of my job.

    As I moved from station to station, I found there wasn't a lot of money. So I started doing TV commercials. And when I was 32, I finally left my last radio station to work out of my home studio [recording TV commercials].

    I do a lot of commercials for national furniture retailers. I announce the big sales. I just did an infomercial for eDiets where I introduce people who had success on eDiets. I do car dealers and laser vision correction doctors. I did a voice-over for an animated medical documentary. I'm doing the on-hold system for [a bank], so while people are on hold, they're listening to me talking about the various things the bank is offering.

    I probably send out a total of 25 invoices a month. To do a 30-second commercial in a local market could be $100 to $250 per commercial, depending on the size, and [bigger jobs] can be $500 per spot.

    [What I like most is] that I'm in shorts and t-shirts every day in my home, that going to work every day involves stepping into one of my bedrooms, that it doesn't take very long. It would really surprise me if I'm working more than 18 or 20 hours a week.

    Listen to Jonathan's voice here: http://www.voices.com/people/jonathanlockwood

    Runs a tree-clearing business

    Courtesy: Josh SkolnickName: Josh Skolnick
    Pay: $250,000
    Age: 29

    When I was 10 or 11 years old I had my own little business pushing a lawn mower for people, and I continued with landscaping through middle school and high school. [By 2005, I had my own] mulch business. I had about 385 residential clients.

    [One day], someone called and said they had a dead elm near their pool that no one would come cut down and remove. So I went out and [hired a contractor for the day to] cut down the tree. While I was out there, all the neighbors saw what I was doing and started asking me to cut down their trees, too.

    After that, I started a tree service and sold my mulching business soon after.

    Since starting [Monster Tree Service] in 2008, we've had over 10,000 customers. The first year in business we did well over $1 million in sales, and once we were three years in, we launched a franchise business.

    I didn't go to college. But at 29 years old, I look at friends who just graduated medical school or are getting law degrees, still living at home with their parents, and I've got houses and millions of dollars worth of equipment.

    Run luxury hotels for dogs

    Courtesy: Steven and Jason ParkerName: Steven and Jason Parker
    Pay: $150,000-plus (each)
    Age: 28 and 25

    Steven: When we were kids we would always ask our parents for a dog for our birthdays and holidays. When I was 14 and Jason was 12, we said 'what if we start a dog-sitting business to show our parents we're responsible enough to take care of a dog?'

    We [took care of 50 dogs] and went back to our parents, and they said 'it's not that we don't believe you have the responsibility, it's that we don't like dogs.'

    But we loved what we were doing anyway. So we opened [a luxury dog hotel] in 2005 and it was an immediate success.

    Jason: [To set ourselves apart, we have] cage-free rooms and suites, outdoor window views, and plasma TVs playing "Animal Planet."

    Steven: In 2010, we started franchising, and we [just] sold our sixth franchise. We plan to open 100 stores within the next three to five years.

    It's the American dream. We're first-generation Americans and came from humble beginnings, and we're just getting started. We want to be the Donald Trump of the pet care industry.

    We like to have fun, too. Jason bought a Maserati. We took our mother to Hawaii for her wedding anniversary and to her hometown in Italy.

    Cleans up credit reports

    Courtesy: Kevin and Sherry FosterName: Kevin Foster
    Pay: $103,000
    Age: 53

    About five years ago, I went to go purchase a car, and the salesman said [no one would finance my loan]. Then he told me I had a 460 credit score. He said I needed to find someone to help me get my credit cleaned up. I called a [credit repair] company and enrolled.

    It turned out there was another guy who lived in my same town with a very similar Social Security number, so his bad credit had gotten merged onto my credit report. [Once the credit repair company was done], my score went from a 460 to a 780.

    [Three years later], I started going to national conferences that are like boot camps for credit repair and I learned how to legally and ethically launch my own company [TRW Credit Services].

    I live in a small town and know every car dealership, every bank, so I started making phone calls to every person I knew at these places and told them my story. I said, 'send me all your bad customers and I'll clean them up.'

    My total out of pocket was under $1,000 to launch my business out of a spare bedroom in our house.

     

    Article link: http://money.cnn.com/gallery/pf/2012/10/05/six-figure-jobs/

     

     

October 6, 2012

  • Trading Update 10/1 - 10/5: PTSD

    Fair gains this week - missed a few good opportunities but did manage to catch a couple.

    I had a bit of Post Trading Stress Disorder- after being heavily down in September and fighting my way back I found myself a bit hesitant in pulling the trigger this week and as a result missed some decent trading setups. It mostly wore off by mid week, but it was helpful in driving the point home to not be so aggressive.

    Jumped the gun a bit early for a reversal down move but trying out a new strategy- keeping my position size low and using stops on any additional orders which should keep me from getting over leveraged if the market continued to move against me. It worked well in that I got stopped out twice and had to look for a re-entry point rather than staying in and taking in more losses. The end result was a better position plus a better understanding on where I should be entering new positions.

    I dislike using stops especially after regular market hours as it seems they are more prone to being tripped by market makers when volume is light. On the other hand, you have peace of mind against having to keep an eye on market activities.

     

October 5, 2012

October 2, 2012

September 29, 2012

  • September and 3rd Quarter Performance: Chariots of Soullfire Edition

    September had exactly four weeks of trading, which in my case broke down as follows:

    Week 1: Missed the train - let the big move I was expecting take off without me.

    Week 2: Run over by train - apparently not satisfied with just missing the initial big move, I managed to step in front of and get run over by the second leg, taking on deep losses.

    Week 3: Digging out of hole - back is now against the wall attempting to salvage what I can for the remainder of the month. Trading much better this week and make up a good portion of the losses.

    Week 4: Recovery and resurgence - able to make up for all losses and move strongly ahead to close the week and month out with solid gains.

     

    September Performance:

     

    September Performance vs Indices Chart Version:

     

     

    This month was especially satisfying in being able to overcome my slow start and big trading errors and still finish strongly before the month ended. I didn't let the mid month losses throw me off or alter my original trading plans.

     

    September Performance vs Indices - Chariots of Fire Version:

     

     

     Another interesting stat is this month marks both my worst actualized losses and my best actualized gains of the year.

     

     3rd Quarter Performance:

     

    3rd Quarter Performance vs Indices:

     

     

September 28, 2012

  • Trading Update 9/24 - 9/28: Deal or No Deal

    Note: It's a bit long but hopefully entertaining.

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    With the final week remaining in September, my work was cut out for me in seeing if I could atone for the trading mistakes made during the first two weeks of the month. Last week was a good start so this would be a make or break week.

    I was carrying more risk than I would normally like - more ES contracts than normal. As each ES contract represents a $50 per point move, the more contracts you have, the bigger the multiplier is which results in a greater risk of greater losses if the market moves against you.

     

    I'm employing my "microtrading strategy" I picked up on last week so I figure I'll be able to make the necessary risk adjustments in a timely manner if necessary.

    The market opens Sunday afternoon, starts moving up, then drifts lower for the rest of the day/evening, which gives my short position nice gains. My analysis points to a continued drop to a much lower target price so the week is looking good so far.

    On Monday, the market begins moving up, which I expected, then starts moving back down, which I also anticipated. So far so good, then the market unexpectedly lurches upward again in strong buying to where it had opened on Sunday, erasing my gains before settling a little lower for the cash close. No matter how many times you experience it, there is always at least a small pang of regret when you witness gains being erased and even more so when it's replaced with losses.

    At this point the market challenges me to a critical game of "Deal or No Deal", playing on my fears and doubts to test my resolve:

    Market: Soullfire, prices are still creeping up, and your PnL is no longer positive and is growing in the loss category. Perhaps you should quit before you wind up with bigger losses.

    Soullfire: The up move is still in the parameters of my analysis, so there's no need to think about exiting yet.

    Market: But what if you're wrong?

    Soullfire: If the market moves far enough to invalidate my prediction analysis, I'll exit - the loss comes with the territory.

     

    Now of course while I sound calm, cool, and collected, all the concerns the "market" brings up reside in the back of my mind which causes typical second guessing if I'm making the right decisions or not. The way I calm down is to just accept the worst case outcome beforehand, that I'm going to lose on this trade, but if I stick to my plan, that's just the cost of business.

    The market continues to move higher and I'm watching my PnL grow deeper in the red. Fun stuff. whatevah However, it's still within my analysis parameters but I keep watch and am ready to pull the plug if need be. It's the worst kind of creep up too..rather than a big jump, there's a tic by tic increase like a dripping water torture as I watch my losses slowly but steadily increase. That can really play on one's mind.

    The market finally starts heading back down and over time it gets close to break even on my PnL, at which time the market offers me another deal:

     

    Market: Phew! I thought you were going to have to close out with big losses, but you were lucky! You're near break even! Why press your luck? Shouldn't you exit now?

    Soullfire: I'm waiting until my target price is reached or I am shown to be wrong.

    Market: Remember how you felt when you had those deep losses? Do you want to risk that again? It's wise to get out now, and plan for another time.

    Soullfire: If I do that I'll miss the anticipated bigger move and will miss my chance to make up for the earlier losses. I'm sticking with the plan.

    Market Okay, your funeral!

     

    Yes, the market can be quite an a$$ at times.

    After some volatility, prices continue to drift lower and now my PnL column turns blue, meaning I now have gains again. The market returns with yet another deal:

     

    Market: What, do you carry a rabbits foot? You're positive again! Get out now while you can do so at a profit!

    Soullfire: Tempting, but nope, sticking to the plan.

    Market: What? Are you nuts? Remember the pain you felt when your PnL went from positive to negative? Do you want that to happen again? Quit while you're ahead!

    Soullfire: Nope. I made mistakes like that throughout the year and especially this summer and I'm not going to repeat them if possible.

    Market: You cray cray.

     

    Early Tuesday as if on cue prices start drifting up again and I watch my positive PnL shrink. If I want to stay positive, I'll have to exit now. But I don't and resolve to stick with the plan. Before long I'm back in the red with growing losses.

     

    Market: See... I told you! You're wrong, exit now before your losses get bigger!

    I continue to ignore the inner market demons although they are quite grating, waiting to see if the market breaks lower or continues to climb to the point of invalidation of my analysis. The market breaks lower after a while, and I'm back to near break even.

    I think I weathered the storm and things will get better, but then the market lurches up again. My thoughts are now censored and I'm starting to take the actions personally as if I'm being taunted. Prices drop again, then jump up again. It's clear the market is doing a shake out prior to a bigger move to get nervous people to exit or make the wrong decisions. I go over my analysis again and again and feel confident in keeping my position open.

    The market finally drops lower and I'm back again at near exactly break even. The market deal maker shows up in my mind again:

     

    Market: You lucked out twice! You're back to break even! This time take it before the market zooms against you and you pile on losses!

    Soullfire: Nope. Sticking with the plan!

    The market stayed at break even for what seemed like an inordinate amount of time, as if to personally test my resolve of not quitting the trade. It sure felt personal.


    Then it happened, the market just dropped as if the floor had been taken out. Then it began cascading lower in waterfall fashion. My analysis was right although the market moved in every which way possible to make me seriously doubt myself. This is why trading can be so difficult at times.


    After that challenging mental test of nerves, the market turned from being my adversary to my ally. It followed my plan closely and accurately and I was able to exit my short position at my targeted price near the lowest point of the move, reverse and take on a long position for another big gain, and then trade from both directions on the micro scale. It was as if the market was moving according to my prearranged plans.

    The option trades in CRM this week also went very well. Analyzing the move in CRM seemed super easy compared to what I had to go through with ES.


    Had big gains from Tuesday on. At the end of the week at the final closing bell I knew this was a special week unlike any other to date.

    The net result was a new record week of huge proportions that stepped all over my previous best week ever. To give you a measure of how big this week was, if you subtract my biggest losing week of the year which was last week from the gains made this week, the result would still be close to my previous best trading week ever.


    Trading grade for this week was definitely at the "A" level. It's quite an incredible feeling when a trading plan works out so well.


     

     

     

     

  • Dr Seuss Goes to the Hood

    Samuel Jackson is in a political video set up as a children's book - pretty funny. Think of Dr Seuss meets Pulp Fiction.

    Note: While he's pro Obama, it's really a good general message for all voters to not be a mindless drone on cruise control.

    Note II: All the NSFW words are bleeped out but I still wouldn't play it on high volume.

     

     

     

September 22, 2012

  • Trading Update 9/17 - 9/21: Improving Grades

    This week had a special set of challenges for me due to my mistakes make the prior week:

    1) Negative PnL from current futures ES position entered too early.

    2) Current position on September ES contracts, but need to switch to December contracts before week is over.

     

    The 1st problem needs no explanation- took a nice beating last week being on the wrong side of the market that I had correctly predicted- helping to give me that D+ trading grade I deserved. bummed

    The second problem requires a bit more info for those who don't trade. There are four ES Futures contract periods where you can trade and are essentially 3 month periods: Dec - Mar, Mar - Jun, Jun - Sept, Sept - Dec. Each contract period is a different investment vehicle and is no longer tradable once they expire.

    Notice there are 4 overlapping periods where one contract is expiring and another contract is starting: March, June, September, and December. These are the months where you need to "rollover" your positions from the expiring contract to the new one. The majority of people rollover positions at the end of the 2nd week of the rollover month, with one week to go before expiration (end of 3rd week of the month).

    Okay, so last week was rollover week, and I'm still in the old September expiration contract and need to move to the December contract. I could have just done a direct move by closing my September position and immediately reopening on December, but I decided to make it part of my trading plan- I plan on closing when my plan calls for it and re-enter according to plan as well.

    Okay, so here's the challenge - the clock is running out on September ES. After the main rollover day, the new contract starts having more volume than the expiring contact, and the expiring contract loses more volume on a daily basis as it moves closer to expiration. You won't get best pricing once the volume shrinks past a certain point, so waiting until the last minute will likely be costly. I'm hoping my trading plan allows me to exit the expiring contract early this week or else I'll have to just transfer over regardless.

    There's another part of the challenge to this, unless there's a BIG market move in my favor, I will likely be exiting contracts with losing positions, which means I will be actualizing my losses. Here's where you get to trader phobias that affect just about ALL investors/traders. Humans in general don't like to take a loss, which is why so many people hang onto losing positions hoping for a turnaround. This usually results in small losses becoming big losses and big losses becoming huge ones.

    The fact is the loss has already occurred whether one has actualized it or not. Not closing a position for a loss may feel good mentally, but doesn't change the true reality.

    This is also associated with traders/investors fearing the market will immediately reverse once they exit and they will lose getting their money back. This type of fear means a plan wasn't made to determine whether they are "right" or "wrong" in a trade - and it's the main reason why so many people lose money in the markets. Before you enter a position, you should already know where you will start taking profits if your analysis is correct, and where you will exit if you are wrong. Getting in a trade/investment without knowing those basic things is a recipe for trouble, as you won't know what to do if the market does things you weren't expecting. Many people go into "hope and pray" mode during market troubles which only makes the problem worse. It's the equivalent to taking your hands off the steering wheel when driving, "hoping/praying" for a good outcome.

    I don't have a problem exiting once my plan shows I'm wrong, but now I'd be exiting "mid-plan" since the complete trade is still in progress. So I have to make peace with these midterm losses.

    Another problem is since I am intending on rolling over my position according to plan, I have to fine tune my trading moves. I like swing trades, where I can get into a position, and not do much until the end target is reached which could take a few days to a few weeks. Since time is limited I have to move into what I call "micro-trading" mode where I make adjustments on an intra-day basis. It takes more focus and energy to make a more detailed plan of action. This detail is needed if I want to optimize where I get out of the old contract and into the new one.

    The last challenge is basically charting, analyzing, and trading two different contracts at once. They will have the same type of movement/patterns, but have different values and here's where trend line subjectivity errors show up. More than a few of my trend plots had to be redone because the two charts weren't matching up.

    So with all these needed parameters and challenges, how did I do?

    Well, the market once again went into "snooze mode" the early part of this week and I'm watching the old contract volume continue to shrink. I figure if I don't get the move I'm looking for by Wednesday, I'll be rolling over by Thursday morning regardless. As fate would have it, the market did move where I was expecting on Wednesday and I was able to close out from the old contract, and plan for entries on the new contract, which happened Thursday.

    I'd say the overall grade for this weeks activities would be a B+ with some big gains on the learning curve.

    The ironic thing about this week is I'll be marking my biggest actualized loss of the year, although I had terrific gains this week. That should tell you how bad I got hit last week. I cut my losses by more than half at this stage of the trade. Another roller coaster PnL chart shaping up.

    Being forced to analyze/trade both the expiring and new contracts at the same time in micro-trading mode helped sharpen my trend plotting skills and made me aware of a new level of trading where I can capture more profits from the smaller intraday moves. Rather than looking for a 5+ point move, there are many 2+ moves that occur throughout the day that I've been passing up.

    One drawback to micro-trading is that it requires more focus so it's a bit more tiring, but it also helps with understanding overall market direction with better profit extraction.

    My option trades in CRM went well and I closed out of those with no problems, except that that I closed one too soon and left more profit on the table - a better problem to have.

    So now the trade continues in the new December contract going forward. My goal now is to "unactualize" this week's losses with higher gains using the new skills gained during this challenging experience.

     

    One lesson remains with me from last week- DON'T trade against the main trend without using tight stops! Yeah, I think I learned my lesson. laughing

     

     

     

     

     

September 21, 2012