We finally heard from the XangaTeam, notably CEO John, on the last day of the scheduled pledge:

http://thexangateam.xanga.com/774812086/xanga-20-is-almost-here/

 

They waited until the last day to give us an update. I suppose it could have been worse – they could have waited until late in the evening or perhaps a few minutes before midnight to make things ultra dramatic…

 

When we hit the 2 days to go mark, I listed the following possibilities for the XangaTeam:

 

1) Another “last minute” extension of the deadline, which is July 31st.

2) “Hail Mary” last minute donor stepping in during the next two days to fill the gap.

3) Xanga unceremoniously pulls the plug after not meeting the pledge drive goal and sites are inaccessible on August 1.

 

As it turns out, they combined options 1 and 2 with a modification thrown in:

 

1) The deadline has been extended to Aug 31st.

2) Xanga (ie, John) has revealed itself as the “Super Donor” and is going to contribute $10,000 to the campaign.

3) Since Xanga is pledging $10K, they are going to lower the Pledge threshold to $50K, so when the meter hits $50K, the goal will be met – that’s about $2k away.

 

Since we have August to make ~$2K, it should be obvious to all that Xanga 2.0 is now basically guaranteed to be a go.

 

One more piece of important info – they will now be moving the blogs of ALL donors, not just those who pledged $48 or higher. So if you want your blog to be transferred and you were never a premium user, any donation will now get your blog transferred.

 

Here’s is the bottom line info again:

1) John from Xanga has announced he is going to contribute the last $10K of the pledge amount.

2) Because of this the pledge goal is now going to be set at $50K, and we are near $48K now.

3) The deadline has been extended through August to give them time to complete migration.

4) For non premium members of past or present – a donation of any amount will now get your blog transferred over.

5) With the pledge goal now reduced to just ~$2K, for all intent and purposes, Xanga 2.0 is destined to become a reality

 

 

The Matrix Revolutions – Every beginning has an… by MyMovies_International

 

This will most likely be my last post on “Xanga 1.0″ 

Since I’ve upgraded to “premium” with my credits, that should allow me some time to check out “2.0″ for a little while anyway, IF it happens.

Will the pledge drive succeed for “2.0″? We have no direct updates since July 8 () so it’s still in the air, but the fact that it’s been reported that they are working on 2.0 now and feel confident they will reach their goal makes me think the new version will get the green light. I guess all will be revealed at the end of the month.

How and if this happens and how “smooth” the changeover will be is anybody’s guess.  Since a mass message never went out, the biggest surprise will be for the folks who still don’t know about the pending changes.

Regardless of what happens with Xanga 2.0, I have to say I enjoyed Xanga 1.0 and the friends I’ve made here. Thanks to all my subs and friends for reading my economic snoozers and my documented efforts to succeed at trading for a living.

The journey will be continuing here:

http://soullfire.wordpress.com/

 

 It’s been a pleasure, Xanga 1.0…

 

 

 

 

The last several weeks I’ve been conducting an experiment of sorts…

There’s an “anonymous” user from California that is apparently interested in reading my blogs, but only wishes to remain anonymous. No comments are left, but I can see blog after blog and different pages are being casually browsed or read.

When I turn sign in lock on, activity stops. When sign on lock is off, first browsing is slow (as they discover they can access it anonymously), then picks up the pace as they start reading more blogs systematically and running searches of key words and well as going through archived material looking through older material.

I can tell the difference between a “robot” search and a “human” search. =)

I typically run an open blog that’s open to anyone to see, but there’s a difference between someone casually clicking on your blog and reading the current entry and perhaps some linked entries, as opposed to someone clicking blog after blog after blog, searching for blogs via tag words and going back to read past blogs in archives.

 

So to the person really “interested” in my blogs….

While I don’t really mind anyone looking at my current blogs as I write them, if you’re going to to keep going past a few days, multiple link clicks, run searches, or go though the archives for dated material, you really should identify yourself and say “Hi!” and leave a comment or two. Otherwise it comes across as “stalking” with a mixture of being rude/creepy- especially when the behavior is repeated over and over when I turn off sign in lock.

After all, blogs are not general “public libraries” – it’s a person sharing their thoughts – so if you find something interesting share your thoughts on that subject as well, or at least give out a greeting. =)

 

Don’t be shy – say “Hi!”

 

 

As the clock ticks down to the end of “Xanga 1.0″, Xangan’s are faced with the stark reality that the landscape will be dramatically changed. Assuming the pledge drive succeeds, the new Xanga 2.0 will not have “free” (ad sponsored) blogging.

As a result of this new policy, many Xangan’s have chosen to jump ship to other blogging sites that continue to use the free blogging model. Other Xangan’s have decided to stay under the new terms of “pay to blog”.

The problem is I can’t help but notice the rising hostility from those among the “stay and payers” towards those choosing to leave.

Before I continue, I’d like to add that I walk the line between the two groups – I made a pledge donation, and I also have no plans to continue blogging here under the “pay wall” model once my current premium time expires. I made the pledge because I’d like to see Xanga 2.0 make it out the door for old times sake and to help those choosing to stay. I choose not to stay because I also believe that their decision to end the free blogging business model is a serious business error on their part that’s counter to community growth and development.

Casually browsing blogs and comments you can’t help but notice that battle lines are being drawn between those leaving and those staying. What’s worse, is that the attacks from those staying are becoming increasingly personal and nasty. Those leaving are getting branded as:

 

1) Malcontents

2) Ingrates

3) Spoiled Children

4) Free loaders

5) Nobodies

6) Clueless folks who fail to understand there is “no free lunch”

7) Traitors

8) Cheapskates

 

I could go on  but you get the idea. I haven’t seen that type of rise in resentment of those leaving towards those staying. To be clear, I’m not including “Trolls” who eagerly cheer for Xanga to fail – for anyone who does that clearly wasn’t part of the community to begin with.

First, this reaction is a clear indicator of the community damage Xanga has caused by their actions.

Next, as someone who is among those “leaving”, I want to make some things perfectly clear to those staying who are attacking those leaving in this manner:

 

1) If you are currently paying for premium, you are NOT paying for others to blog “free”. You are paying for increased service and functionality. Xanga 1.0 is based on the “ad revenue” model where they get paid from advertisers – along the same lines as “free” TV and radio. Xanga made a good income from this model until their net traffic fell to current levels.

2) Those pushing the “no free lunch”, or one of its variants, see above. Xanga was getting paid by advertisers so please stop framing it as if free blogging was “charity”. Understand the business model.

 

3) Those who practice pejorative name calling to those who disagree with Xanga’s actions need to get off their high horse and stop. Those leaving have as much right to voicing their views as those who are painting a positive picture with staying. Again, I’m not talking about completely negative trolling which should be called out, but people pointing out valid problems and concerns. Calling these folks “traitors” or saying things such “if you’re not happy, leave already” reeks of intolerance and attempted bullying rather than positive community values.

Blogging in and of itself is also “paying” because it creates content for others to read and enjoy. Take a look at some of the bloggers you like to read and see if they are staying or leaving – won’t their absence diminish the “value” of your subscriptions?

Why do you think the free blogging model even exists? The answer is simple – people are more likely to join a service where they see others going/hanging out. Empty places don’t attract people. Just about every social site (physical or web) knows this, but apparently Xanga has forgotten this “minor” fact.

It can be argued that those who appreciate the community care enough to leave to show Xanga the error they are making. If Xanga wants this to be a thriving business, they need to do things that will attract people rather than repel them. Actions speak louder than words and a sizable drop in users is a clear signal that the current direction may not be a good one.

If everyone were to just “suck it up” and stay regardless of their feelings on the matter, that would just be enabling Xanga to stay on their present questionable path. Sometimes “tough love” is needed to get someone to see the error of their ways and make the needed corrections.

I can all but guarantee you that come August, the “new” Xanga will be strongly considering bringing back some type of free blogging, largely in part to the also “new” largely depopulated landscape.

 

The true tragedy of this is they will have the learn the lesson of why free blogging is needed the hard way, causing great damage, strife, resentment,infighting etc,… to the community in the process.

 

 

 

 

The country and much of the world is still reeling from the financial meltdown whose cause can be pinpointed to the major Wall Street banks and their toxic financial products they peddled throughout the globe. Today Detroit has filed for bankruptcy, becoming the largest US city on record to do so. 

Cities around the globe are dealing with the pain of the one two punch of toxic products that were sold to them from the big banks and the collapse in property tax revenue from the flood of home mortgage defaults.

Yet, despite the great carnage and ruin to people’s investments, homes, lives, and futures, you’d be hard pressed to find any one of the bankers or hedge fund players own up to any errors or wrong doing.

Believe it or not, they largely place the blame on the blow up on the masses for not continuing to pay their mortgage. Forget about the fact that the banks had a hand in inflating home values to a bubble level, falsified income levels on loan applications so that the loans would qualify, fired appraisers who wouldn’t play ball and appraise homes well above what they really thought they were worth, and conned people with their sweet nothing songs of “you can always get a refi if you need to cash out or adjust your loan payments”. But when things went south, the defaulting homeowner gets the bulk of their finger pointing.

Ridiculous.

The truth is Wall Street suffers from a case of terminal arrogance, thinking they are the “experts” at all times and never take blame for any mistakes, even as they siphon off funds from the citizens in the form of government bailouts. The growing government debt becomes “our” problem with pressure to cut medicare and social security benefits while increasing taxes. But when Wall Street firms make money, they would laugh at the notion of sharing their wealth with the general population. So despite their claim at loving capitalism, they are hypocrites that actually seek to socialize their losses onto others rather than own up to their mistakes and take direct accountability for them.

Their mantra is “Heads, we win, tails, you lose!”.

 

The reality is they aren’t as smart as they “think”, and arrogance is a poor substitute for having actual brains. Take the majority of hedge funds out there, upon scrutiny you’ll find just a handful of folks if any that actually know what they’re doing and the rest are just parasites sponging off the knowledge of others.The sad part is these parasites “think” they are as good as the folks who actually know what they are doing – that’s the problem.

 

Here’s an example- you get into a conversation with one of these types about market or economic related matters- if they feel you have dared questioned their “all-encompassing” market knowledge, they will respond not with a knowledgeable answer that shows they actually know something, but they throw an arrogant “mine is bigger than yours” attack. You’ll hear such drivel as “Our firm has assets of over uptyump billion, we’re globally located, how much do you book in client wealth, we’re the largest this, the best that, etc…”

While these are nice “sounding” attempts to make whoever is saying them seem superior, upon closer analysis, it’s all a bunch of garbage and a dodge from showing any “real” knowledge. What they are attempting to do is make the case that they have soo much money or assets that they must be sooo smart. Good con artists can also make the claim of great wealth from the money they gleaned from their victims, and that’s the meat of it really. Just because someone may be good at getting someone to invest with them, doesn’t mean that actually know what they are doing. It means the hedge fund or banks has convinced the prospective victim investor that they know what they are doing.

 

Take these would be “geniuses” and put them in a separate room and make them prove they can generate real performance and not just spout out text book portfolio theory mumbo jumbo, then you will see just how “smart” most of them really are.

 

And therein lies the problem- Wall Street has more “con artists” than actual smart people and being they are given so much power and deference by our Government, don’t expect our economic woes to go away anytime soon. Isn’t it interesting that it’s been over 5 years since the meltdown and there are KNOWN cases of intentional fraud and wrongdoing, and yet, not ONE bank exec has faced criminal charges.  Any case brought against the banks have been civil, and and the penalties small in relation to the overall profits made.

 

This week another civil case opens up against Fabrice Tourre, one the sellers of toxic investment products that led to the meltdown. But he is just a “low man” on the totem pole of blame.

 

 

I’m still waiting for “criminal cases” to be brought against the top execs, but I’m not holding my breath for that. Our government and attorney general  seems to be too afraid to rock the boat and cause potential economic upheavals with administering “true justice”

… and so the arrogance continues, and we are all but guaranteed that there will be another Wall Street originated crisis because no one was made to pay for their misdeeds this time.

 

 

 

 

 

Watch The Untouchables on PBS. See more from FRONTLINE.

 

 

 

The new July 31st deadline date leaves us with two weeks remaining of the pledge drive.

Current stats are 587 donors and a pledge level of about $41.5K

Health of the pledge drive is fairly decent. The pledge drive hit the 50% market when 50% of the time was remaining. The additional two weeks added to the pledge drive puts the current 6 week mark at the 75% time spent level.

$41.5K/$60K x 100 = ~69.2%

 

To be at the 75% level would require the pledge drive amount to be at $45K. So being just $3.5k off isn’t bad especially if the heavy hitter donors haven’t stepped in yet.

 

We were supposed to be getting a look at “Xanga 2.0″ mock ups and a software app/checker to determine which blogs would be moving, but we’re still waiting on those items.

Since the schedule is sliding, I wonder how “hard” the deadline date is? Guess we’ll be finding out in two more weeks…

 

 

When people I talk to IRL find I actively trade, I often get the “Teach me to trade!” as one of the responses. The feeling comes across that I could sit down with someone and and after a session of explaining all the “secrets”, they’d be newly minted traders immediately able to conquer the markets- like there’s a special “gimmick”  to be made aware of that will make mastering trading a snap.

Truth is, like most major tasks one sets out to master, it requires an iterative process where you go from a larger “generic” plan and work it down to the specific details necessary to implement it.

 

For example, the recipe for generating wealth can be summarized by the following:

1) Find a good paying job

2) Save more than you spend

3) Invest your savings

 

Sounds simple on the surface level, but as they say, the devil’s in the details. Each step breaks down into multiple questions, which in turn generate more sub-steps:

1) Find a good paying job

a) What jobs are available?

a1) Determine list of available jobs

 

b) What are their qualifications?

b1) Do you qualify for the job?

b2) Is advance education needed?

b2a) What school to go to?

 

…and so on, and so forth. So those three simple sounding steps can quickly morph into quite a complex and detailed set of tasks as you start formulating a plan of action. It’s clear that attempting to implement that plan will require dedicated time and effort to keep breaking down the steps until you arrive at the specific actions to carry out.

There will also be some “missteps”, where you proceed on your best guess with the information you have, but it turns out that move was a mistake- requiring you to backtrack a bit. As you proceed, other steps will also become apparent, enabling you to develop further plan details.

So the question to carrying out this plan becomes are you willing work through the process of fleshing out all the steps of the general plan in order to create a specific plan?

It can feel daunting when you think about all the steps involved, but if you just take it a step at a time instead on trying to focus on everything, the plan feels much easier to implement.

 

 

Learning to trade well uses the same process- starting with a general simplified plan, then adding more sub steps and details to get it to the point of execution.

Of course trading presents a higher level of difficulty because there is a flood of uncertainty and seemingly random market behavior. The initial steps may look something like this:

 

1) Determine generalized market behavior

1a) When is it more likely to rise?

1b) When is it more likely to fall?

 

The complex/unknown nature of the market can make even forming the initial steps a challenging effort.

One potential trading pitfall is coming up with an inaccurate simplified plan from the start, as the resulting detailed plan would be doomed from the start.

Fleshing out the following steps after the simplified steps are created can also be difficult due to the amount of market variables at your disposal. However, once you start moving down a path, creating successive steps become less difficult over time as you figure out what works and what doesn’t. The key is to be disciplined and systematic and persevere through the whole process as you develop greater and greater step details trying to implement your plan. Being systematic and disciplined is crucial to keep from getting bogged down. If a certain planned path doesn’t work, you want to be able to discard it without having it repeated, while keeping the parts of the plan that work. Otherwise, one can keep running in circles, a fate which happens to many potential traders.

The magic part about putting your brain to work is that even the most complex tasks can be broken down to a simplified and achievable step by step process, as long as you’re committed to see it through.

 

 

 

I mentioned the existence of an earlier “Soulfire” whose blogging career here began and ended a few years before I started. I also mentioned another “Soulfire”, “XxSoulfirexX”, that was on friends lock. Don’t know either of those two….

But there is yet another “Soullfire” – “SoullfireII” to be exact, whom I “do” know. 

 

An evil twin from a parallel universe? A very unoriginal blogger? My back up copy of this blog in case of a system crash?

 

Answer: None of the above…

 

It’s another site I have. It’s not a “secret site” as I’ve mentioned it a few times over the years- easy to miss over an influx of business/trading posts.

It’s intent was to be the yin to “Soullfire’s” yang. Whereas Soullfire was business heavy, SoullfireII was intended to be a bit more personable.

The idea was when writing on Soullfire, I’d try to be more general since it’s an open blog and I have no idea whose reading. Worse case scenario- office peeps know my alias and have been secretly reading for years. That’s why there were never any specific work related gripes, haha. Not that SoullfireII is all emo and stuff- that’s just not my style. Just less generic.

Of course time being limited, Soullfire dominated most of my blogging time and not as much went to SoullfireII. As a matter of fact, SoullfireII got so little attention, that I never upgraded it when Xanga offered the “new at the time” themes page format. So it’s like looking into the past…

 

 

With time winding down on Xanga 1.0 and the “edict” that non premium accounts will likely be erased, it made me think of all those with alternate blogs that will also be getting the axe.

 

Don’t forget to backup/archive all your blogs – including your “secret” ones, haha.

 

 

Thanks to the eagle eyes of @cagey, I was alerted to the fact that the Xanga Crowdhoster Pledge Drive Page has been updated-

 

It no longer has an “end date” of July 15th, the new date has been moved to July 31.

 

This was close to my speculated scenario #1 – Xanga extending the pledge drive deadline.

 

So while that’s promising news that things are still happening behind the scenes, it clearly shows a lack of coordination from the business side of things.

One would expect an announcement/update to be made BEFORE the dates were changed, not the other way around.

 

Since another week has passed by with no further updates, which is VERY surprising considering we are going into the final week of the pledge drive. I think I’ll do what business and news media LOVE to do when in situations like this: speculate on possible outcomes based on available info, haha.

 

Okay, here’s the latest info:

1) Pledge drive at ~ $37,400 with 478 backers

That amount may appear to be “anemic” but it’s really not so bad going into the final week. The last week is similar to the first in getting a flurry of activity and we are definitely in striking distance with just a few big gun donors if they show up, and this is the most likely time for such a move.

That was the “good” news. Now onto the less promising and cloudy info…..

2) A mass “private messaging” mail has STILL not been sent out.

I find it both funny and sad that almost everyday I see someone on Xanga express either shocked surprise or disbelief that Xanga may be closing down for good, or complete ignorance of the fact.

Just yesterday I asked one of the main moderators/contributors on an ish site what their plans were if Xanga goes down. Their response was basically “I didn’t hear anything about that!” You look around the site and everything looks like it’s just another day on Xanga- no priority placed warnings or splash pages of the current situation of any kind. So all those who don’t visit the front page or know to look in the bottom corner for news from Xanga, they are completely oblivious to the whole shut down crisis.

3) We were told there would be a software app or notification on which blogs would be transferred over and which would not – still waiting…

4) We were told there would be mock ups of Xanga 2.0 to see – - still waiting…

 

These are things that normally would NOT be held up for the final week of a pledge drive and shutdown deadline. It takes time for people to react to new information and you want to give them that time to soak it in and answer any questions they may have. 

With only a week left, there’s not much time for anything – out of all the weeks – the last week should have been the “silent run” week with everything put in place earlier.

 

All these delayed activities (if they even happen) point to an ongoing problem of time management. Engineers can be notorious for needing more time than estimated, but the business folks know how critical deadline dates are and prod them on. Keeping the customer informed of any delays as early as possible is critical to keep positive momentum going. It’s clear the business minded side of the pledge drive is MIA.

#2, #3, and #4 are NOT small things, and the fact that these are still “TBD” are red flags something isn’t right.

 

It’s now time to speculate on possible outcomes for July 15th:

 

1) The pledge drive ends and Xanga renews/extends it if the goal hasn’t been met.

Odds: Not likely. John said on the phone interview that the date is “hard coded”. Plus it weakens the credibility of the company when they set hard dates, then fail to act on them- especially without any advance notice. The lease where their servers are is expiring, which would limit any extension.

2) The pledge drive gets some “Hail Mary” big donations at the end to pull through and make the goal.

Odds: Possible. This would explain the seemingly “lackadaisical” response from Xanga to date if they knew they had some big gun donors that were going to step in during the last week. However, if this is the case, we should start to see some big moves no later than Wednesday- the mid point of the final week. This translates to being at least in the mid to upper $40k’s by that time. 

3) The pledge drive fails and Xanga closes down.

Odds: Also possible. This scenario should enrage all the “super supporters” who have been working a storm and spending much of their time trying to raise funds. Few if any would be willing to argue against the fact that Xanga has been pretty quiet this whole time and could have done much more to help their own cause.

This begs the question, did they even intend to have a “Xanga 2.0″, or was this just going through the motions of just wanting to look like they cared as some have speculated earlier? If the latter, that would be even more of a reason for super supporters to be enraged since the cause was lost and their efforts wasted from the very beginning.

4) The pledge drive fails, and Xanga…doesn’t close and continues working on Xanga 2.0.

Odds: Not likely. The pledge drive was to fund the move from where their servers were located and launch Xanga 2.0. If that were possible without the pledge drive, then why would they hold one in the first place?

 

So it looks like scenario #2 and #3 are the most likely. For the sake of all the super supporters as well as all those who have no idea of what the current situation is, I hope it winds up being scenario #2. A #3 outcome would not only be disastrous for all the uninformed users who stand to lose their entire work, but a sad and dark ending on Xanga and the reputation of those running Xanga. It would be a sad summary of all the problems that have plagued Xanga these last years of its once bright life. Definitely not a good note to end on.

Now some folks may get upset that I’m bringing up all these negative aspects instead of just “thinking positive thoughts”, but those folks likely don’t understand how businesses work. The negative aspects HAVE to be addressed so people can make intelligent decisions on what to do.

For EVERY company that has failed, there have been a set of ardent supporters who believed in that company no matter what- then express shock and anger when that “faith” didn’t pan out and the company failed anyway. A Company in trouble will rarely tell you when they are on the way out – just look at all the Wall Street and mortgage Banks during the 2008/2009 melt down. The repeated mantra was “Everything is fine, we have things under control…” right up until the point they declared bankruptcy/insolvency and were liquidated.

I don’t look at things from a “faith” based perspective when it comes to business….and neither should anyone.

Into the final stretch we go…